2026 House forecast · all 435 seats
Democrats need to gain five seats. In the median simulation they gain 22.
Chance of winning the House
90%Democrats win the majority
10%Republicans keep the majority
Median outcome: 235 Democratic seats. In 80% of simulations Democrats win 218 to 256; control takes 218.
Democratic seats across 20,000 simulations
Each district starts from its partisan lean on the 2026 lines (Cook PVI), shifted by the national generic ballot and adjusted for incumbency. District polls are blended in where they exist. Nine states redrew their maps for 2026.
Median Democratic seats235+22 from today
Projected R→D flips24districts favored to flip
Projected D→R flips55 in states with new maps
Generic ballotD+8.7adjusted average
How the odds have changed
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
Every district
Hover for odds, click a competitive districtRepublican, toss-up, DemocraticProjected to flipEach hexagon is one district on the 2026 maps, grouped by state; positions within a state are approximate.
Every competitive district
By forecast margin. Hover a dot to see its state.By state
District table
| District | Candidates | PVI | Experts | District polls | Forecast | Chance of winning | Tipping pt. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI-3Flip Rep. held | Rebecca Cooke Derrick Van Orden | R+3 | D+2.3 | D+1.0 (1) | Even | 50% | 1.4% |
| TX-35Flip Open · Rep. held | Johnny Garcia Carlos De La Cruz | R+4 | R+3.6 | R+0.7 (4) | Even | 51% | 1.6% |
| VA-1Flip Rep. held | Shannon Taylor Rob Wittman | R+3 | R+1.4 | D+0.6 (3) | Even | 51% | 1.6% |
| WI-1 Rep. held | Mitchell Berman Bryan Steil | R+2 | R+7.2 | R+2.9 (3) | Even | 51% | 1.5% |
| FL-22Flip Open · Dem. held | Pia Dandiya Casey Askar | R+4 | R+2.0 | R+1.9 (2) | Even | 52% | 1.4% |
| MT-1 Open · Rep. held | Sam Forstag Aaron Flint | R+5 | R+5.2 | D+0.5 (6) | Even | 52% | 1.4% |
| PA-8Flip Rep. held | Paige Cognetti Rob Bresnahan | R+4 | D+0.5 | D+3.4 (3) | Even | 52% | 1.6% |
| TX-15 Rep. held | Bobby Pulido Monica De La Cruz | R+7 | R+3.8 | D+4.4 (6) | Even | 54% | 1.4% |
| OH-9Flip Dem. held | Marcy Kaptur Derek Merrin | R+5 | D+3.0 | R+3.0 (1) | R+1.0 | 54% | 1.3% |
| ME-2 Open · Dem. held | Matthew Dunlap Paul LePage | R+4 | R+4.5 | D+0.6 (6) | D+1.0 | 55% | 1.7% |
| MI-10 Open · Rep. held | Christina Hines Mike Bouchard | R+3 | D+1.6 | R+4.5 (2) | R+1.0 | 56% | 1.2% |
| IA-2Flip Open · Rep. held | Lindsay James Joe Mitchell | R+4 | R+1.4 | D+1.1 (2) | D+1.0 | 56% | 1.7% |
| PA-10Flip Rep. held | Janelle Stelson Scott Perry | R+3 | D+3.1 | D+2.5 (3) | D+1.0 | 57% | 1.7% |
| MI-4 Rep. held | Sean McCann Bill Huizenga | R+3 | R+1.8 | R+2.8 (2) | R+1.0 | 60% | 0.9% |
| FL-7 Open · Rep. held | Bale Dalton Ryan Elijah | R+5 | R+6.5 | R+3.0 (1) | R+2.0 | 61% | 1.0% |
| KY-6 Open · Rep. held | Zach Dembo Ralph Alvarado | R+7 | R+6.8 | D+2.0 (7) | R+2.0 | 61% | 0.9% |
| IA-3Flip Rep. held | Sarah Trone Garriott Zach Nunn | R+2 | D+3.4 | – | D+2.0 | 62% | 1.8% |
| NY-1 Rep. held | Christopher Gallant Nick LaLota | R+4 | R+9.4 | – | R+2.0 | 64% | 0.9% |
| FL-25 Dem. held | Jared Moskowitz Scott Singer | R+3 | D+2.9 | R+0.5 (2) | D+2.0 | 67% | 2.4% |
| FL-4 Rep. held | – | R+5 | R+12.2 | – | R+3.0 | 67% | 0.8% |
| NC-1 Dem. held | Don Davis Laurie Buckhout | R+5 | D+0.5 | D+5.3 (4) | D+2.0 | 68% | 2.5% |
| NC-11Flip Open · Rep. held | Jamie Ager Jennifer Balkcom | R+5 | R+1.4 | D+8.1 (2) | D+3.0 | 68% | 2.2% |
| PA-1Flip Rep. held | Bob Harvie Brian Fitzpatrick | D+1 | R+2.3 | R+2.6 (5) | D+2.0 | 68% | 2.5% |
| MO-2 Rep. held | Fred Wellman Ann Wagner | R+6 | R+12.2 | D+1.2 (3) | R+3.0 | 68% | 0.6% |
| FL-16 Open · Rep. held | Kelly Kirschner Sydney Gruters | R+6 | R+8.3 | R+1.9 (2) | R+3.0 | 68% | 0.7% |
| SC-1 Open · Rep. held | Nancy Lacore Jenny Costa Honeycutt | R+6 | R+7.4 | R+2.3 (2) | R+3.0 | 70% | 0.8% |
| OH-7Flip Rep. held | Brian Poindexter Max Miller | R+5 | Even | D+7.8 (5) | D+3.0 | 70% | 2.4% |
| CO-5 Rep. held | Jessica Killin Jeff Crank | R+5 | R+6.0 | R+1.6 (3) | R+3.0 | 72% | 0.7% |
| WA-3 Dem. held | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez John Braun | R+2 | D+5.6 | R+1.6 (3) | D+3.0 | 72% | 2.4% |
| IA-1Flip Rep. held | Christina Bohannan Mariannette Miller-Meeks | R+4 | D+2.7 | D+9.5 (2) | D+3.0 | 72% | 2.5% |
| OH-10 Rep. held | Kristina Knickerbocker Mike Turner | R+4 | R+11.3 | R+6.5 (3) | R+3.0 | 72% | 0.5% |
| MN-1 Rep. held | Jake Johnson Brad Finstad | R+6 | R+10.3 | R+0.2 (3) | R+3.0 | 73% | 0.6% |
| AL-2Flip Dem. held | Shomari Figures Rhett Marques | R+7 | R+8.1 | R+3.0 (2) | R+4.0 | 73% | 0.7% |
| OH-15 Rep. held | Don Leonard Mike Carey | R+5 | R+9.9 | R+4.2 (4) | R+4.0 | 74% | 0.6% |
| AZ-6Flip Rep. held | JoAnna Mendoza Juan Ciscomani | EVEN | D+3.8 | D+0.2 (2) | D+4.0 | 74% | 2.3% |
| CO-3 Rep. held | Dwayne Romero Jeff Hurd | R+5 | R+6.8 | R+3.0 (2) | R+4.0 | 75% | 0.5% |
| VA-2Flip Rep. held | Elaine Luria Jen Kiggans | EVEN | D+3.4 | D+1.2 (2) | D+4.0 | 75% | 2.5% |
| WA-5 Rep. held | – | R+5 | R+14.4 | – | R+4.0 | 76% | 0.6% |
| PA-7Flip Rep. held | Bob Brooks Ryan Mackenzie | R+1 | D+2.7 | D+4.5 (3) | D+4.0 | 77% | 2.5% |
| FL-27 Rep. held | Eliott Rodriguez Maria Elvira Salazar | R+6 | R+9.0 | R+3.5 (2) | R+4.0 | 78% | 0.4% |
| NC-3 Rep. held | – | R+6 | R+13.5 | – | R+5.0 | 78% | 0.5% |
| CO-8Flip Rep. held | Manny Rutinel Gabe Evans | EVEN | D+3.1 | D+1.0 (1) | D+5.0 | 78% | 2.2% |
| TX-23 Open · Rep. held | Katy Padilla Stout Brandon Herrera | R+7 | R+6.3 | R+3.0 (1) | R+5.0 | 78% | 0.5% |
| AZ-2 Rep. held | Jonathan Nez Eli Crane | R+7 | R+8.6 | D+2.0 (1) | R+4.0 | 78% | 0.4% |
| NY-17Flip Rep. held | Cait Conley Mike Lawler | D+1 | D+2.7 | D+0.6 (4) | D+4.0 | 78% | 2.5% |
| FL-14 Dem. held | Kathy Castor Mike Beltran | R+4 | D+1.8 | D+7.0 (2) | D+4.0 | 78% | 2.5% |
| FL-9Flip Dem. held | Darren Soto Dan Green | R+8 | R+5.4 | R+2.7 (2) | R+5.0 | 79% | 0.4% |
| NE-1 Rep. held | Chris Backemeyer Mike Flood | R+6 | R+13.5 | R+1.7 (2) | R+5.0 | 79% | 0.4% |
| TX-34 Dem. held | Vicente Gonzalez Eric Flores | R+3 | D+1.8 | D+4.4 (3) | D+4.0 | 80% | 2.5% |
| FL-13 Rep. held | Leela Gray Anna Paulina Luna | R+6 | R+8.1 | R+4.1 (5) | R+4.0 | 80% | 0.3% |
| FL-11 Open · Rep. held | – | R+7 | R+11.7 | – | R+5.0 | 80% | 0.4% |
| NV-2 Open · Rep. held | Teresa Benitez-Thompson David Flippo | R+7 | R+10.8 | R+5.0 (1) | R+5.0 | 81% | 0.4% |
| AZ-1Flip Open · Rep. held | Amish Shah Jay Feely | R+1 | D+4.0 | D+2.5 (2) | D+5.0 | 81% | 2.4% |
| AR-2 Rep. held | Chris Jones French Hill | R+8 | R+12.6 | D+0.5 (2) | R+5.0 | 82% | 0.4% |
| MI-7Flip Rep. held | William Lawrence Tom Barrett | EVEN | D+2.0 | D+4.6 (2) | D+5.0 | 82% | 2.3% |
| NJ-7Flip Rep. held | Rebecca Bennett Thomas Kean Jr. | EVEN | D+4.0 | D+5.0 (1) | D+6.0 | 83% | 2.2% |
| NY-2 Rep. held | – | R+6 | R+13.5 | – | R+6.0 | 84% | 0.3% |
| NJ-2 Rep. held | Zack Mullock Jeff Van Drew | R+5 | R+12.6 | R+13.0 (1) | R+6.0 | 85% | 0.3% |
| FL-12 Rep. held | – | R+7 | R+12.6 | – | R+7.0 | 86% | 0.2% |
| FL-21 Rep. held | – | R+7 | R+15.3 | – | R+7.0 | 86% | 0.3% |
| NY-21 Open · Rep. held | Blake Gendebien Anthony Constantino | R+10 | R+13.5 | R+1.3 (4) | R+6.0 | 86% | 0.2% |
| VA-5 Rep. held | Tom Perriello John McGuire | R+6 | R+9.2 | R+5.6 (3) | R+6.0 | 86% | 0.2% |
| NC-7 Rep. held | – | R+7 | R+12.6 | – | R+7.0 | 86% | 0.2% |
| FL-26 Rep. held | – | R+7 | R+16.2 | – | R+7.0 | 86% | 0.3% |
| FL-2 Open · Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+13.9 | – | R+7.0 | 87% | 0.3% |
| TX-32 Open · Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+12.6 | – | R+7.0 | 87% | 0.2% |
| CA-22Flip Rep. held | Randy Villegas David Valadao | D+1 | D+4.3 | D+1.0 (1) | D+7.0 | 87% | 1.7% |
| GA-1 Open · Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+13.5 | – | R+7.0 | 87% | 0.2% |
| OH-1 Dem. held | Greg Landsman Eric Conroy | R+1 | D+7.4 | D+4.6 (3) | D+6.0 | 88% | 2.0% |
| IN-5 Rep. held | J. D. Ford Victoria Spartz | R+8 | R+13.5 | R+3.2 (2) | R+7.0 | 90% | 0.1% |
| GA-12 Rep. held | – | R+7 | R+15.3 | – | R+8.0 | 90% | 0.2% |
| SC-2 Rep. held | – | R+7 | R+15.3 | – | R+8.0 | 90% | 0.2% |
| MN-8 Rep. held | – | R+7 | R+13.5 | – | R+8.0 | 90% | 0.1% |
| TX-24 Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+14.4 | – | R+9.0 | 91% | 0.2% |
| OH-8 Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+13.1 | – | R+9.0 | 91% | 0.2% |
| NC-13 Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+12.6 | – | R+9.0 | 91% | 0.1% |
| NC-9 Rep. held | Richard Ojeda Richard Hudson | R+8 | R+12.2 | R+7.0 (1) | R+8.0 | 91% | 0.1% |
| FL-18 Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+15.3 | – | R+9.0 | 91% | 0.1% |
| NC-14 Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+14.4 | – | R+9.0 | 92% | 0.1% |
| FL-8 Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+13.5 | – | R+9.0 | 92% | 0.2% |
| TN-9Flip Open · Dem. held | Justin Pearson Brent Taylor | R+9 | R+13.1 | R+7.0 (1) | R+9.0 | 92% | 0.2% |
| NM-2 Dem. held | Gabe Vasquez Greg Cunningham | EVEN | D+7.8 | D+3.4 (2) | D+8.0 | 92% | 1.8% |
| TX-9 Open · Rep. held | – | R+9 | R+14.4 | – | R+9.0 | 92% | 0.1% |
| TX-28 Dem. held | Henry Cuellar Tano Tijerina | R+3 | D+5.8 | D+12.2 (3) | D+8.0 | 93% | 1.5% |
| NH-1 Open · Dem. held | Stefany Shaheen Anthony DiLorenzo | D+2 | D+10.8 | D+4.0 (2) | D+8.0 | 93% | 1.6% |
| MI-8 Dem. held | Kristen McDonald Rivet Thomas Smith | R+1 | D+13.1 | – | D+10.0 | 93% | 1.1% |
| CA-48Flip Open · Rep. held | Marni von Wilpert Jim Desmond | D+2 | D+6.3 | D+4.4 (4) | D+8.0 | 94% | 1.4% |
| AZ-8 Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+12.6 | – | R+10.0 | 94% | 0.1% |
| MD-1 Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+17.1 | – | R+10.0 | 94% | 0.1% |
| WI-6 Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+15.3 | – | R+10.0 | 94% | 0.1% |
| WI-8 Rep. held | – | R+8 | R+14.4 | – | R+10.0 | 95% | 0.0% |
| FL-15 Rep. held | – | R+9 | R+15.3 | – | R+11.0 | 95% | 0.1% |
| NC-6 Rep. held | – | R+9 | R+16.2 | – | R+11.0 | 95% | 0.1% |
| NC-5 Rep. held | – | R+9 | R+15.3 | – | R+11.0 | 95% | 0.1% |
| AK-AL Rep. held | Bill Hill (I) Nick Begich III | R+6 | R+9.4 | R+10.7 (5) | R+9.0 | 95% | 0.0% |
| NC-10 Rep. held | – | R+9 | R+17.1 | – | R+11.0 | 95% | 0.1% |
| TX-10 Open · Rep. held | – | R+10 | R+16.2 | – | R+11.0 | 95% | 0.1% |
| WA-4 Open · Rep. held | – | R+10 | R+17.1 | – | R+11.0 | 96% | 0.1% |
| AZ-5 Open · Rep. held | – | R+10 | R+15.8 | – | R+11.0 | 96% | 0.0% |
| TN-5 Open · Rep. held | – | R+10 | R+15.3 | – | R+11.0 | 96% | 0.0% |
| TX-21 Open · Rep. held | – | R+10 | R+17.1 | – | R+11.0 | 96% | 0.1% |
| CO-4 Rep. held | Eileen Laubacher Lauren Boebert | R+9 | R+8.6 | R+8.0 (1) | R+11.0 | 96% | 0.1% |
| NY-3 Dem. held | Tom Suozzi Mike LiPetri | EVEN | D+9.0 | – | D+12.0 | 96% | 0.7% |
| OK-5 Rep. held | – | R+9 | R+15.3 | – | R+12.0 | 97% | 0.1% |
| FL-28 Rep. held | – | R+10 | R+18.0 | – | R+13.0 | 97% | 0.1% |
| NC-8 Rep. held | – | R+10 | R+17.1 | – | R+13.0 | 97% | 0.0% |
| TX-22 Open · Rep. held | – | R+11 | R+16.2 | – | R+13.0 | 97% | 0.0% |
| TX-2 Open · Rep. held | – | R+11 | R+15.3 | – | R+13.0 | 97% | 0.0% |
| WI-7 Open · Rep. held | – | R+11 | R+16.2 | – | R+13.0 | 98% | 0.0% |
| OK-1 Open · Rep. held | – | R+11 | R+17.1 | – | R+13.0 | 98% | 0.0% |
| SC-5 Open · Rep. held | – | R+11 | R+17.1 | – | R+13.0 | 98% | 0.1% |
| NY-19 Dem. held | – | D+1 | D+12.2 | – | D+14.0 | 98% | 0.4% |
| IN-1 Dem. held | – | D+1 | D+12.6 | – | D+14.0 | 98% | 0.4% |
| NV-3 Dem. held | Susie Lee Martin O'Donnell | D+1 | D+9.4 | – | D+14.0 | 98% | 0.4% |
| OH-13 Dem. held | – | D+2 | D+13.5 | – | D+14.0 | 98% | 0.4% |
| CA-13 Dem. held | Adam Gray Kevin Lincoln | D+2 | D+10.1 | – | D+14.0 | 98% | 0.4% |
| KS-2 Rep. held | – | R+10 | R+15.3 | – | R+14.0 | 98% | 0.0% |
| NE-2Flip Open · Rep. held | Denise Powell Brinker Harding | D+3 | D+9.7 | D+10.1 (2) | D+13.0 | 98% | 0.4% |
| MN-2 Open · Dem. held | – | D+3 | D+11.7 | – | D+15.0 | 98% | 0.3% |
| TN-7 Rep. held | – | R+11 | R+17.1 | – | R+15.0 | 98% | 0.0% |
| NV-1 Dem. held | – | D+2 | D+10.8 | – | D+16.0 | 99% | 0.1% |
| NY-18 Dem. held | – | D+2 | D+17.1 | – | D+16.0 | 99% | 0.2% |
| NY-4 Dem. held | Laura Gillen Jeanine Driscoll | D+2 | D+11.0 | – | D+16.0 | 99% | 0.2% |
| CA-45 Dem. held | Derek Tran Chuong Vo | D+3 | D+12.2 | – | D+16.0 | 99% | 0.2% |
| KS-3 Dem. held | – | D+2 | D+16.2 | – | D+16.0 | 99% | 0.2% |
| VA-7 Dem. held | – | D+2 | D+12.6 | – | D+16.0 | 99% | 0.2% |
| NV-4 Dem. held | – | D+2 | D+12.6 | – | D+16.0 | 99% | 0.2% |
| NJ-9 Dem. held | – | D+2 | D+11.7 | – | D+16.0 | 99% | 0.3% |
| PA-16 Rep. held | – | R+11 | R+17.1 | – | R+16.0 | 99% | 0.0% |
| MI-1 Rep. held | – | R+11 | R+15.3 | – | R+16.0 | 99% | 0.0% |
| CT-5 Dem. held | – | D+3 | D+17.1 | – | D+18.0 | 99% | 0.1% |
| IL-6 Dem. held | – | D+3 | D+17.1 | – | D+18.0 | 99% | 0.1% |
| MD-6 Dem. held | – | D+3 | D+16.2 | – | D+18.0 | 99% | 0.1% |
| IL-17 Dem. held | – | D+3 | D+17.1 | – | D+18.0 | 99% | 0.1% |
| NM-3 Dem. held | Teresa Leger Fernández Martin Zamora | D+3 | D+17.1 | D+14.0 (1) | D+17.0 | 99% | 0.2% |
| IL-14 Dem. held | – | D+3 | D+17.1 | – | D+18.0 | 99% | 0.1% |
| PA-17 Dem. held | – | D+3 | D+17.1 | – | D+18.0 | 99% | 0.1% |
| WA-8 Dem. held | – | D+3 | D+16.2 | – | D+18.0 | 99% | 0.1% |
| VA-6 Rep. held | – | R+12 | R+17.1 | – | R+18.0 | 99% | 0.0% |
| RI-2 Dem. held | Seth Magaziner Vic Mellor | D+4 | D+17.1 | D+13.0 (1) | D+17.0 | 99% | 0.1% |
| CA-6Flip Open · Rep. held | – | D+5 | D+13.1 | – | D+19.0 | 99% | 0.1% |
| CA-25 Dem. held | – | D+4 | D+17.1 | – | D+18.0 | 99% | 0.1% |
| IL-8 Open · Dem. held | – | D+5 | D+17.1 | – | D+19.0 | >99% | 0.0% |
| MI-3 Dem. held | – | D+4 | D+16.2 | – | D+20.0 | >99% | 0.0% |
| OR-5 Dem. held | – | D+4 | D+17.1 | – | D+20.0 | >99% | 0.1% |
| CA-21 Dem. held | – | D+5 | D+13.5 | – | D+20.0 | >99% | 0.0% |
| AZ-4 Dem. held | – | D+4 | D+17.1 | – | D+20.0 | >99% | 0.1% |
| NH-2 Dem. held | Maggie Goodlander Lily Tang Williams | D+2 | D+15.3 | D+17.9 (4) | D+17.0 | >99% | 0.1% |
| CA-1Flip Open · Rep. held | – | D+7 | D+17.1 | – | D+23.0 | >99% | 0.0% |
| CA-49 Dem. held | – | D+7 | D+17.1 | – | D+24.0 | >99% | 0.0% |
| MO-5 Dem. held | – | D+8 | D+18.0 | – | D+28.0 | >99% | 0.0% |
| GA-14 Rep. held | – | R+19 | R+17.1 | – | R+32.0 | >99% | 0.0% |
| ME-1 Dem. held | – | D+11 | D+17.1 | – | D+34.0 | >99% | 0.0% |
Not shown: 163 Democratic and 119 Republican seats every forecaster rates safe; they are held fixed.