Josh Shapiro is heavily favored to win Pennsylvania
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsJosh Shapiro wins in >99% of simulations (about 1 in 1250 for the underdog). Median margin D+23.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+18.3. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) and 10 points for the incumbent with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+23.4. 12 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 88% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | Oct 21 | 400 LV | D+23.0 | R+0.6 | D+23.6 | 0.28 |
| Z to A Research | Oct 1 | 630 LV | D+19.0 | R+0.3 | D+21.5 | 0.67 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22 | 615 LV | D+20.0 | R+1.7 | D+21.9 | 0.61 |
| Bravo Group | Sep 22 | 624 RV | D+27.0 | D+4.9 | D+27.3 | 0.71 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | Aug 23 | 501 RV | D+25.0 | D+2.4 | D+30.6 | 0.65 |
| Bravo Group | Aug 22 | 711 LV | D+31.0 | D+4.9 | D+32.2 | 0.32 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Aug 21 | 760 LV | D+16.0 | R+1.7 | D+18.2 | 0.29 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Aug 21 | 760 RV | D+17.0 | R+1.7 | D+20.5 | 0.29 |
| National Public Affairs | Jul 30 | 600 LV | D+7.0 | R+2.9 | D+10.2 | 0.60 |
| Bravo Group | Jul 24 | 630 LV | D+25.0 | D+4.9 | D+25.0 | 0.29 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | Jun 14 | 546 RV | D+22.0 | D+1.2 | D+26.8 | 0.66 |
| MAD Global Strategy | Jun 11 | 600 LV | D+17.0 | R+0.6 | D+21.4 | 0.69 |