Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
Senate / OhioOhio Senate special election 2026 · seat held by Republicans (incumbent running)

Sherrod Brown is slightly favored to win Ohio

Sherrod Brown72%Democrat
Jon Husted28%Republican · incumbent
Forecast marginD+3.180%: R+4.0 to D+10.0
Tipping point12.7%chance it decides control
Cook ratingToss-upOct 20
2024 presidentR+11.2nation R+1.5

Polls

Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as published

Dot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.

Range of outcomes

Democratic margin across simulations

Sherrod Brown wins in 72% of simulations (about 1 in 4 for the underdog). Median margin D+3.0.

Chance of winning over time

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

How the forecast is built

Fundamentals R+3.5. Ohio voted R+11.2 for president in 2024, 9.7 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Jon Husted's incumbency is worth 2.5 points.

Polls D+3.7. 26 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 92% of the weight.

What this race means for control

Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.

Fundraising

From candidate reports through 2026-09-30
Sherrod Brown$61.0Mraised this cycle
Jon Husted$18.8Mraised this cycle · $8.9M on hand

Through 2026-09-30. Source

Model vs. prediction market

Kalshi
This model72%Democrat wins
Kalshi68%implied, Oct 27

Every poll in the model

PollsterField endSamplePublishedHouse effectAdjustedWeight
EchelonOct 23508 LVD+3.0D+0.4D+2.70.61
RedBox D internalOct 232,998 LVD+3.0R+0.4D+1.60.50
InsiderAdvantageOct 221,200 LVD+3.0R+1.2D+4.40.88
Verasight/VoteHubOct 20531 LVD+3.9D+0.4D+3.80.60
Fox (Beacon/Shaw)Oct 191,592 LVD+5.0R+0.4D+5.41.50
MaristOct 181,000 LVD+4.0D+2.2D+2.01.21
ActiVoteOct 18400 LVEvenR+0.6D+0.60.27
RasmussenOct 14901 LVR+2.0R+1.0R+1.00.66
GS Strategy/New RiverOct 13959 LVD+6.0D+1.2D+5.11.00
BGSU/YouGovOct 91,000 LVD+6.0D+0.7D+5.81.10
co/efficientOct 6925 LVR+1.0R+4.6D+3.50.81
CNN/SSRSOct 5760 LVD+6.0D+1.2D+5.11.02
NYT/SienaOct 1616 LVD+3.0D+0.1D+3.00.86
YouGovSep 303,780 LVD+4.0D+0.7D+3.41.79
InsiderAdvantageSep 291,200 LVD+1.0R+1.2D+2.30.36
MaristSep 271,298 RVD+8.0D+2.2D+6.70.55
Big Data PollSep 27680 LVD+3.0D+0.2D+3.10.53
SuffolkSep 27500 LVD+3.0D+0.6D+2.60.76
QuantusSep 23695 LVEvenR+3.0D+3.00.56
TrafalgarSep 161,085 LVD+3.0R+1.5D+4.80.91
InsiderAdvantageSep 91,200 LVD+5.4R+1.2D+7.10.35
Wedgewood PollsAug 13800 LVD+4.0R+0.3D+4.50.74
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchAug 101,008 RVD+8.0D+0.4D+8.30.82
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 28601 LVR+3.0R+1.7R+1.30.58
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact ResearchJun 16800 LVD+3.0D+0.1D+3.00.73
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchJun 11,015 RVD+8.0D+0.4D+8.30.33