Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
Senate / MaineMaine Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (incumbent running)

Troy Jackson is slightly favored to win Maine

Troy Jackson72%Democrat
Susan Collins28%Republican · incumbent
Forecast marginD+3.080%: R+4.0 to D+10.0
Tipping point10.0%chance it decides control
Cook ratingToss-upOct 20
2024 presidentD+6.9nation R+1.5

Polls

Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as published

Dot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.

Range of outcomes

Democratic margin across simulations

Troy Jackson wins in 72% of simulations (about 1 in 4 for the underdog). Median margin D+3.0.

Chance of winning over time

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

How the forecast is built

Fundamentals D+7.3. Maine voted D+6.9 for president in 2024, 8.4 points more Democratic than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Susan Collins's incumbency is worth 9.8 points.

Polls D+2.7. 24 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 93% of the weight.

What this race means for control

Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.

Fundraising

From candidate reports through 2026-09-30
Troy Jackson$20.4Mraised Jul–Sep · $4.0M on hand
Susan Collins$5.2Mraised Jul–Sep · $5.4M on hand

Through 2026-09-30. Source

Model vs. prediction market

Kalshi
This model72%Democrat wins
Kalshi61%implied, Oct 27

Every poll in the model

PollsterField endSamplePublishedHouse effectAdjustedWeight
MaristOct 251,449 RVD+6.0D+2.2D+4.51.42
EchelonOct 23413 LVD+7.0D+0.4D+6.80.51
TrafalgarOct 231,077 LVEvenR+1.5D+1.50.87
Fox (Beacon/Shaw)Oct 201,514 LVEvenR+0.4D+0.41.46
InsiderAdvantageOct 141,200 LVD+2.0R+1.2D+3.20.85
SuffolkOct 11500 LVD+2.0D+0.6D+1.40.73
RasmussenOct 8804 LVD+2.0R+1.0D+3.00.61
WaPo/SSPGOct 5800 LVD+4.0D+0.4D+3.71.02
MaristOct 41,505 RVD+4.0D+2.2D+2.50.58
Wedgewood PollsOct 1400 LVD+4.0R+0.3D+4.30.42
TrafalgarOct 11,091 LVEvenR+1.5D+1.50.36
CBS/YouGovOct 11,136 LVEvenR+0.6D+0.61.24
co/efficientSep 301,240 LVR+2.0R+4.6D+2.50.94
MPRCSep 29684 LVD+2.0R+0.2D+2.20.55
InsiderAdvantageSep 231,200 LVEvenR+1.2D+1.20.35
Fabrizio/ImpactSep 22982 LVD+3.0R+0.5D+3.50.98
NYT/SienaSep 22619 LVR+3.0D+0.1R+3.20.86
UNHSep 211,312 LVD+4.0R+2.3D+6.31.29
QuantusSep 15621 LVR+0.7R+3.0D+2.30.52
UMass Lowell/YouGovSep 14650 LVD+5.0D+0.6D+4.70.78
YouGovSep 81,335 LVD+4.0D+0.7D+3.51.28
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchAug 101,000 RVD+2.0D+0.4D+2.40.83
Hart Research Associates D internalAug 1802 LVD+4.00.0D+2.10.36
University of New HampshireJul 201,178 LVD+3.0R+1.9D+5.00.91