Adam Hamilton is a slight favorite to win Kansas
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsAdam Hamilton wins in 50% of simulations (about 1 in 2 for the underdog). Median margin Even.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+5.3. Kansas voted R+16.1 for president in 2024, 14.6 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Roger Marshall's incumbency is worth 0.6 points.
Polls D+0.8. 11 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 88% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Model vs. prediction market
KalshiEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RedBox | Oct 23 | 1,301 LV | R+1.0 | R+0.4 | R+0.7 | 0.70 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 14 | 1,200 LV | R+1.0 | R+1.2 | D+0.2 | 0.85 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 10 | 1,200 LV | D+1.0 | R+1.2 | D+2.2 | 0.34 |
| YouGov | Oct 4 | 2,255 LV | D+3.0 | D+0.7 | D+2.4 | 1.62 |
| GBAO D internal | Oct 4 | 600 LV | D+5.0 | D+0.3 | D+3.0 | 0.24 |
| Trafalgar | Oct 1 | 1,095 LV | Even | R+1.5 | D+1.5 | 0.91 |
| NYT/Siena | Sep 30 | 605 LV | R+1.0 | D+0.1 | R+1.1 | 0.86 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 24 | 500 LV | D+2.0 | R+0.3 | D+2.3 | 0.50 |
| Global Strategy Group D internal | Sep 16 | 800 LV | D+2.0 | R+0.2 | D+0.2 | 0.31 |
| Emerson/Nexstar | Sep 16 | 750 LV | D+1.5 | D+0.2 | D+1.4 | 1.03 |
| co/efficient | Sep 10 | 915 LV | R+5.0 | R+4.6 | R+0.7 | 0.80 |