Senate / WyomingWyoming Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (open seat)
Harriet Hageman is heavily favored to win Wyoming
James Byrd<1%Democrat
Harriet Hageman>99%Republican
Forecast marginR+35.680%: R+40.0 to R+25.0
Tipping point0.0%chance it decides control
Cook ratingSolid ROct 20
2024 presidentR+45.8nation R+1.5
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsJames Byrd wins in <1% of simulations (about 1 in 10000 for the underdog). Median margin R+36.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+35.6. Wyoming voted R+45.8 for president in 2024, 44.3 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7).
No public polls, so the forecast is fundamentals only, with wider uncertainty.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This race is modeled from a published polling average. | ||||||