Xavier Becerra is heavily favored to win California
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsXavier Becerra wins in >99% of simulations (about 1 in 5000 for the underdog). Median margin D+25.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+18.8. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+25.3. 8 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 91% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | Oct 24 | 799 LV | D+22.0 | D+0.6 | D+24.2 | 0.79 |
| Emerson College | Oct 19 | 1,000 LV | D+28.0 | R+1.5 | D+29.5 | 0.84 |
| University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/Verasight/TrueDot | Oct 14 | 909 LV | D+20.0 | R+1.9 | D+23.5 | 0.83 |
| SurveyUSA | Sep 20 | 742 LV | D+22.0 | D+0.6 | D+23.6 | 0.30 |
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | Sep 20 | 4,512 LV | D+25.0 | R+0.9 | D+27.6 | 1.44 |
| University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/Verasight/TrueDot | Sep 16 | 1,983 LV | D+18.0 | R+1.9 | D+21.3 | 0.49 |
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | Aug 9 | 2,310 LV | D+18.0 | R+0.9 | D+19.9 | 0.52 |
| Kreate Strategies | Jun 17 | 900 LV | D+25.0 | D+0.1 | D+26.5 | 0.83 |