Senate / South CarolinaSouth Carolina Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (open seat)
Darline Graham is slightly favored to win South Carolina
Annie Andrews33%Democrat
Darline Graham67%Republican
Forecast marginR+2.480%: R+10.0 to D+5.0
Tipping point5.8%chance it decides control
Cook ratingLean ROct 20
2024 presidentR+17.8nation R+1.5
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsAnnie Andrews wins in 33% of simulations (about 1 in 3 for the underdog). Median margin R+2.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+7.6. South Carolina voted R+17.8 for president in 2024, 16.3 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7).
Polls R+1.5. 12 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 85% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Model vs. prediction market
KalshiThis model33%Democrat wins
Kalshi24%implied, Oct 27
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Media Research | Oct 25 | 895 LV | R+1.0 | D+0.1 | R+1.1 | 0.78 |
| Impact Research D internal | Oct 21 | 800 LV | D+1.0 | D+0.9 | R+1.8 | 0.32 |
| onpointpolitics | Oct 19 | 511 RV | D+3.0 | D+1.4 | D+2.7 | 0.56 |
| Trafalgar | Oct 18 | 1,095 LV | R+3.0 | R+1.5 | R+1.6 | 0.87 |
| Rasmussen | Oct 8 | 837 LV | R+4.0 | R+1.0 | R+3.1 | 0.64 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 29 | 1,200 LV | R+1.0 | R+1.2 | D+0.1 | 0.87 |
| Trafalgar | Sep 25 | 1,087 LV | R+1.1 | R+1.5 | D+0.2 | 0.37 |
| Rasmussen | Sep 14 | 1,006 LV | R+5.0 | R+1.0 | R+4.3 | 0.29 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 9 | 1,200 LV | R+2.0 | R+1.2 | R+1.0 | 0.36 |
| Abacus Data | Aug 28 | 306 LV | R+13.0 | R+2.8 | R+10.2 | 0.35 |
| Impact Research D internal | Aug 24 | 700 LV | Even | D+0.9 | R+2.9 | 0.12 |
| Impact Research D internal | Aug 22 | 900 LV | D+3.0 | D+0.9 | D+0.7 | 0.15 |