Cindy Hyde-Smith is favored to win Mississippi
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsScott Colom wins in 11% of simulations (about 1 in 9 for the underdog). Median margin R+8.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+10.5. Mississippi voted R+22.9 for president in 2024, 21.4 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Cindy Hyde-Smith's incumbency is worth 2.2 points.
Polls R+6.1. 3 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 67% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Model vs. prediction market
KalshiEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research D internal | Oct 22 | 842 LV | R+3.0 | D+1.6 | R+7.1 | 0.32 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Oct 14 | 511 LV | R+4.0 | R+0.3 | R+3.7 | 0.51 |
| Data for Progress D internal | Aug 15 | 1,018 LV | R+6.0 | R+1.3 | R+7.8 | 0.49 |