Greg Abbott is slightly favored to win Texas
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsGina Hinojosa wins in 29% of simulations (about 1 in 3 for the underdog). Median margin R+3.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+5.6. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) and 10 points for the incumbent with the eight published ratings.
Polls R+2.9. 32 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 95% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | Oct 21 | 400 LV | R+5.0 | R+0.6 | R+4.4 | 0.27 |
| YouGov | Oct 21 | 1,000 RV | R+2.0 | D+0.7 | R+2.1 | 1.07 |
| VoteHub/Verasight | Oct 20 | 601 LV | R+1.3 | R+0.2 | R+1.1 | 0.60 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Oct 19 | 1,398 LV | R+5.0 | D+0.4 | R+5.4 | 0.98 |
| Emerson College | Oct 19 | 1,000 LV | R+4.0 | R+1.5 | R+2.7 | 0.83 |
| Pollfinity | Oct 18 | 278 LV | D+1.0 | R+0.1 | D+1.2 | 0.19 |
| Slingshot Strategies | Oct 18 | 969 LV | R+3.0 | D+0.4 | R+3.4 | 0.79 |
| ActiVote | Oct 14 | 400 LV | R+1.8 | R+0.6 | R+1.2 | 0.11 |
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group | Oct 13 | 934 LV | R+2.0 | D+0.5 | R+2.6 | 0.80 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | Oct 8 | 617 LV | R+1.0 | D+1.6 | R+2.6 | 0.60 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 30 | 605 LV | D+3.0 | R+1.7 | D+4.8 | 0.59 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Sep 28 | 881 LV | R+5.0 | D+0.4 | R+5.4 | 0.30 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | Sep 28 | 800 LV | R+2.0 | R+0.5 | R+1.7 | 0.74 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | Sep 28 | 850 LV | R+4.0 | R+0.7 | R+3.5 | 0.76 |
| Slingshot Strategies | Sep 22 | 1,007 LV | R+4.0 | D+0.4 | R+4.4 | 0.33 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Sep 19 | 1,800 LV | R+4.0 | R+0.7 | R+3.4 | 1.14 |
| Emerson College | Sep 14 | 1,000 LV | R+3.0 | R+1.5 | R+1.6 | 0.33 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | Sep 11 | 614 LV | D+4.0 | D+1.6 | D+2.6 | 0.24 |
| YouGov | Sep 4 | 1,000 RV | Even | D+0.7 | Even | 0.43 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Sep 1 | 895 LV | R+3.0 | D+0.1 | R+3.2 | 0.77 |
| Slingshot Strategies | Aug 24 | 1,000 LV | R+7.0 | D+0.4 | R+7.8 | 0.34 |
| The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | Aug 13 | 1,218 RV | R+5.0 | 0.0 | R+5.1 | 0.99 |
| Emerson College | Aug 10 | 1,000 LV | R+4.0 | R+1.5 | R+2.7 | 0.33 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Jul 31 | 800 LV | R+6.0 | R+0.3 | R+5.9 | 0.73 |
| Cygnal R internal | Jul 31 | 800 LV | R+3.0 | D+1.7 | R+2.7 | 0.41 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Jul 30 | 1,200 LV | R+6.0 | R+0.7 | R+5.6 | 0.38 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | Jul 30 | 619 LV | R+1.0 | D+1.6 | R+2.6 | 0.25 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jul 27 | 1,006 RV | R+1.0 | D+0.4 | R+0.7 | 0.32 |
| Slingshot Strategies | Jul 17 | 1,048 LV | R+3.0 | D+0.4 | R+3.7 | 0.36 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 27 | 656 LV | R+7.0 | R+1.7 | R+5.4 | 0.25 |
| Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov | Jun 12 | 1,200 RV | R+7.0 | R+1.1 | R+6.0 | 0.97 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | Jun 4 | 807 LV | R+5.0 | D+1.6 | R+6.8 | 0.29 |