Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is heavily favored to win Alaska
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins wins in 97% of simulations (about 1 in 29 for the underdog). Median margin D+11.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+4.0. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+11.2. 6 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 91% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | Oct 25 | 1,068 LV | D+6.8 | R+0.7 | D+7.5 | 0.96 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Oct 18 | 1,568 LV | D+10.0 | R+0.7 | D+10.7 | 0.47 |
| Data for Progress | Oct 16 | 629 LV | D+6.0 | R+1.3 | D+7.3 | 0.63 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 1 | 431 LV | D+4.0 | R+1.7 | D+5.7 | 0.44 |
| Cygnal | Sep 27 | 502 LV | D+20.0 | D+1.7 | D+25.3 | 0.78 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | Sep 11 | 800 LV | D+10.0 | R+0.4 | D+10.4 | 0.70 |