Jeff Merkley is heavily favored to win Oregon
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsJeff Merkley wins in >99% of simulations (about 1 in 2222 for the underdog). Median margin D+26.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+26.3. Oregon voted D+14.3 for president in 2024, 15.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Jeff Merkley's incumbency is worth 1.8 points.
No public polls, so the forecast is fundamentals only, with wider uncertainty.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This race is modeled from a published polling average. | ||||||