Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
Senate / IowaIowa Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (open seat)

Josh Turek is a slight favorite to win Iowa

Josh Turek50%Democrat
Ashley Hinson50%Republican
Forecast marginD+0.180%: R+7.0 to D+7.0
Tipping point10.4%chance it decides control
Cook ratingToss-upOct 20
2024 presidentR+13.2nation R+1.5

Polls

Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as published

Dot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.

Range of outcomes

Democratic margin across simulations

Josh Turek wins in 50% of simulations (about 1 in 2 for the underdog). Median margin Even.

Chance of winning over time

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

How the forecast is built

Fundamentals R+3.0. Iowa voted R+13.2 for president in 2024, 11.7 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7).

Polls D+0.4. 28 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 91% of the weight.

What this race means for control

Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.

Fundraising

From candidate reports through 2026-09-30
Josh Turek$13.9Mraised Jul–Sep · $3.6M on hand
Ashley Hinson$3.3Mraised Jul–Sep · $7.0M on hand

Through 2026-09-30. Source

Model vs. prediction market

Kalshi
This model50%Democrat wins
Kalshi42%implied, Oct 27

Every poll in the model

PollsterField endSamplePublishedHouse effectAdjustedWeight
EchelonOct 23403 LVD+2.0D+0.4D+1.80.53
InsiderAdvantageOct 221,200 LVR+2.0R+1.2R+0.90.87
co/efficientOct 19863 LVR+3.0R+4.6D+1.40.77
TrafalgarOct 151,094 LVR+2.0R+1.5R+0.70.90
GS Strategy/New RiverOct 13602 LVD+2.0D+1.2D+1.00.75
YouGovOct 122,245 LVD+1.0D+0.7D+0.31.61
NPAOct 12678 LVR+1.0R+0.9R+0.10.55
MaristOct 111,000 LVD+3.0D+2.2D+0.91.20
EmersonOct 6650 LVR+2.0R+0.1R+2.00.91
CNN/SSRSOct 5801 LVR+2.0D+1.2R+3.41.08
SuffolkOct 4500 LVD+4.0D+0.6D+3.60.76
NYT/SienaOct 1606 LVR+1.0D+0.1R+1.10.85
RasmussenSep 301,048 LVD+4.0R+1.0D+5.30.75
QuantusSep 29738 LVR+1.0R+3.0D+2.00.59
Fox (Beacon/Shaw)Sep 281,008 LVD+2.0R+0.4D+2.41.18
InsiderAdvantageSep 231,200 LVD+1.0R+1.2D+2.30.35
MaristSep 201,050 RVD+8.0D+2.2D+6.90.50
TrafalgarSep 181,089 LVR+1.9R+1.5R+0.70.37
co/efficientSep 16831 LVR+4.0R+4.6D+0.10.31
CygnalSep 11500 LVEvenD+1.7R+1.70.64
YouGovSep 82,166 RVD+1.0D+0.7D+1.10.65
EmersonSep 1750 LVR+5.0R+0.1R+5.00.39
SuffolkAug 23500 LVR+4.6D+0.6R+5.80.32
EmersonAug 4712 LVR+3.0R+0.1R+3.00.39
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchJun 271,003 RVD+4.0D+0.4D+4.40.82
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 27600 LVR+2.0R+1.7R+0.40.59
Cygnal R internalJun 19600 LVR+1.8D+1.7R+1.60.14
Public Policy Polling D internalJun 4557 RVEvenR+0.9R+0.40.29