Ty Masterson is slightly favored to win Kansas
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsCindy Holscher wins in 25% of simulations (about 1 in 4 for the underdog). Median margin R+4.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+0.8. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls R+4.5. 3 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 83% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 30 | 605 LV | R+5.0 | R+1.7 | R+3.5 | 0.60 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 24 | 500 LV | R+4.0 | R+0.3 | R+3.7 | 0.50 |
| Emerson College | Sep 16 | 750 LV | R+7.0 | R+1.5 | R+5.7 | 0.69 |