Bill Hagerty is heavily favored to win Tennessee
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsMarquita Bradshaw wins in <1% of simulations (about 1 in 909 for the underdog). Median margin R+22.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+22.4. Tennessee voted R+29.7 for president in 2024, 28.2 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Bill Hagerty's incumbency is worth 2.9 points.
Polls R+22.2. 1 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 57% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research/Beacon Center | Aug 26 | 1,157 RV | R+20.0 | R+0.8 | R+22.1 | 1.00 |