Marsha Blackburn is heavily favored to win Tennessee
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsJerri Green wins in 2% of simulations (about 1 in 54 for the underdog). Median margin R+14.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+11.1. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls R+14.3. 3 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 78% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies | Oct 16 | 635 LV | R+12.0 | R+0.2 | R+15.1 | 0.72 |
| TargetSmart D internal | Sep 12 | 600 LV | R+9.0 | D+0.4 | R+13.2 | 0.33 |
| Targoz Market Research | Aug 26 | 1,149 RV | R+13.0 | R+1.2 | R+14.0 | 1.00 |