Jim Pillen is favored to win Nebraska
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsLynne Walz wins in 18% of simulations (about 1 in 6 for the underdog). Median margin R+6.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+10.2. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) and 10 points for the incumbent with the eight published ratings.
Polls R+4.4. 3 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 80% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | Oct 23 | 407 LV | R+7.0 | R+1.1 | R+6.7 | 0.54 |
| National Public Affairs | Oct 18 | 598 LV | R+6.0 | R+2.9 | R+3.7 | 0.62 |
| National Public Affairs | Oct 5 | 800 LV | R+4.0 | R+2.9 | R+1.7 | 0.31 |