Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
Governors / IowaIowa governor 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans

Rob Sand is heavily favored to win Iowa

Rob Sand91%Democrat
Zach Lahn9%Republican
Forecast marginD+7.380%: Even to D+14.0
Polling averageD+7.621 polls, adjusted
Cook ratingLean DOct 27
2024 presidentR+13.2nation R+1.5

Governor polls

Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as published

Dot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.

Range of outcomes

Democratic margin across simulations

Rob Sand wins in 91% of simulations (about 1 in 11 for the underdog). Median margin D+7.0.

Chance of winning over time

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

How the forecast is built

Fundamentals D+3.8. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.

Polls D+7.6. 21 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 94% of the weight.

Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.

What the forecasters say

Eight published ratings
CookLean D
Inside ElectionsTilt D
SabatoLean D
DDHQLean D
Fox NewsLean D
NBCLean D
RealClearPoliticsLean D
Silver BulletinLikely D

Every poll in the model

PollsterField endSamplePublishedHouse effectAdjustedWeight
Echelon InsightsOct 23403 LVD+4.0R+1.1D+5.10.50
co/efficientOct 19863 LVD+4.0R+4.6D+8.70.76
New RiverOct 13602 LVD+11.0D+0.9D+10.10.59
YouGovOct 122,245 LVD+6.0D+0.7D+5.51.61
National Public AffairsOct 12678 LVD+5.0R+2.9D+8.00.64
Marist UniversityOct 111,100 LVD+7.00.0D+7.00.87
Emerson CollegeOct 6650 LVD+3.7R+1.5D+5.30.63
CNN/SSRSOct 5801 LVD+9.0D+1.2D+8.21.05
The New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 1606 LVD+11.0R+1.7D+13.20.61
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchSep 281,008 LVD+9.0D+0.4D+8.60.83
Marist UniversitySep 201,050 RVD+12.00.0D+12.80.34
co/efficientSep 16831 LVD+4.0R+4.6D+9.00.31
YouGovSep 82,041 LVD+10.0D+0.7D+9.80.63
YouGovSep 82,167 RVD+11.0D+0.7D+12.00.65
Emerson CollegeSep 1750 LVD+3.0R+1.5D+4.50.28
Wedgewood PollsAug 29600 LVD+5.0R+0.3D+5.30.58
Suffolk UniversityAug 23500 LVD+4.2D+2.4D+2.10.53
Emerson CollegeAug 4712 LVD+5.0R+1.5D+6.80.27
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchJun 271,003 RVD+9.0D+0.4D+9.30.33
Cygnal R internalJun 19600 LVD+4.3D+1.7D+4.90.35
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 17600 LVD+1.0R+1.7D+2.70.24