Amy Klobuchar is heavily favored to win Minnesota
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsAmy Klobuchar wins in 95% of simulations (about 1 in 20 for the underdog). Median margin D+10.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+12.6. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+9.6. 5 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 85% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | Oct 12 | 718 LV | D+7.0 | D+0.6 | D+7.0 | 0.70 |
| Mason-Dixon | Oct 7 | 800 LV | D+9.0 | R+1.9 | D+11.5 | 0.74 |
| SurveyUSA | Sep 14 | 654 LV | D+7.0 | D+0.6 | D+7.2 | 0.27 |
| SurveyUSA | Aug 17 | 661 LV | D+16.0 | D+0.6 | D+17.0 | 0.27 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | Jun 10 | 800 LV | D+8.0 | R+0.2 | D+9.0 | 0.76 |