Tom Cotton is heavily favored to win Arkansas
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsHallie Shoffner wins in 3% of simulations (about 1 in 32 for the underdog). Median margin R+11.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+22.9. Arkansas voted R+30.6 for president in 2024, 29.1 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Tom Cotton's incumbency is worth 2.5 points.
Polls R+7.5. 4 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 76% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | Oct 13 | 709 LV | R+9.0 | R+0.5 | R+9.1 | 0.69 |
| GrayHouse R internal | Oct 4 | 550 LV | R+11.0 | R+1.0 | R+9.0 | 0.29 |
| J.L. Partners | Aug 18 | 803 LV | R+16.0 | R+2.7 | R+15.3 | 0.78 |
| Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics | Aug 12 | 1,217 LV | D+3.4 | D+2.7 | D+1.0 | 0.95 |