Senate / MontanaMontana Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (open seat)
Kurt Alme is heavily favored to win Montana
Seth Bodnar (I)1%Independent
Kurt Alme99%Republican
Forecast marginR+15.880%: R+25.0 to R+7.0
Tipping point–chance it decides control
Cook ratingSolid ROct 20
2024 presidentR+19.9nation R+1.5
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Independent margin across simulationsSeth Bodnar (I) wins in 1% of simulations (about 1 in 70 for the underdog). Median margin R+16.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Independent races have no partisan baseline, so the forecast leans on polling, with 3 points of extra uncertainty for how independents perform against their polls.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Three-way race; Democrat Alani Bankhead polls ~17%.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus | Oct 18 | 667 LV | R+16.0 | R+3.0 | R+16.9 | 0.64 |
| Peak Insights | Oct 12 | 500 LV | R+15.0 | R+10.4 | R+9.5 | 0.64 |
| Concord | Oct 8 | 405 LV | I+2.0 | D+5.6 | R+2.9 | 0.31 |
| American Pulse Research | Sep 24 | 604 LV | R+19.0 | R+2.4 | R+23.3 | 0.75 |
| Aspect Strategic | Sep 15 | 715 LV | R+12.0 | D+0.2 | R+15.5 | 0.78 |
| Quantus | Sep 15 | 625 LV | R+20.0 | R+3.0 | R+24.0 | 0.27 |
| Rutgers Eagleton/Montana Free Press | Sep 7 | 845 RV | R+8.0 | D+1.5 | R+11.6 | 0.92 |
| Peak Insights | Aug 25 | 600 LV | R+22.0 | R+10.4 | R+19.3 | 0.32 |
| Hart Research D internal | Aug 4 | 800 LV | R+15.0 | R+1.1 | R+20.3 | 0.42 |
| Tavern Research | Jul 27 | 517 LV | R+2.0 | D+0.2 | R+2.2 | 0.51 |
| GQR | Jul 26 | 500 LV | R+14.0 | D+0.1 | R+19.0 | 0.57 |
| The Bullfinch Group | Jul 16 | 793 LV | R+12.0 | D+1.7 | R+17.9 | 0.96 |
| Tavern Research | Jun 19 | 400 LV | R+24.0 | D+0.2 | R+31.7 | 0.22 |
| Public Opinion Strategies R internal | Jun 11 | 500 LV | R+24.0 | R+3.7 | R+26.7 | 0.36 |