Mark Warner is heavily favored to win Virginia
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsMark Warner wins in >99% of simulations (about 1 in 303 for the underdog). Median margin D+19.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+18.0. Virginia voted D+5.8 for president in 2024, 7.3 points more Democratic than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Mark Warner's incumbency is worth 2.0 points.
Polls D+19.4. 3 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 63% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This race is modeled from a published polling average (3 polls, latest Jun 16). | ||||||