Shelley Moore Capito is heavily favored to win West Virginia
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsRachel Fetty Anderson wins in <1% of simulations (about 1 in 10000 for the underdog). Median margin R+35.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+34.9. West Virginia voted R+41.9 for president in 2024, 40.4 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Shelley Moore Capito's incumbency is worth 3.2 points.
No public polls, so the forecast is fundamentals only, with wider uncertainty.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This race is modeled from a published polling average. | ||||||