Ned Lamont is heavily favored to win Connecticut
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsNed Lamont wins in >99% of simulations (about 1 in 800 for the underdog). Median margin D+21.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+21.8. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) and 10 points for the incumbent with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+20.5. 8 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 89% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 12 | 800 LV | D+13.6 | R+1.5 | D+16.3 | 0.76 |
| Quinnipiac University | Oct 12 | 702 LV | D+20.0 | R+0.2 | D+20.4 | 0.67 |
| GreatBlue Research | Oct 12 | 1,000 RV | D+23.0 | D+2.1 | D+23.7 | 0.89 |
| Wesleyan University Survey Lab/YouGov | Oct 7 | – LV | D+23.0 | D+1.0 | D+23.5 | 0.63 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 540 LV | D+17.0 | R+1.9 | D+19.7 | 0.57 |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 24 | 809 LV | D+15.0 | R+1.9 | D+18.3 | 0.31 |
| GreatBlue Research | Jul 26 | 1,000 RV | D+20.2 | D+2.1 | D+23.3 | 0.38 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 828 LV | D+13.0 | R+1.9 | D+16.8 | 0.32 |