2026 governor forecast · 36 races
Democrats are projected to hold 28 governorships after November, up 4 from today
Democratic governorships after the election
28median of 50
77%chance Democrats hold 26 or more
In 80% of simulations Democrats win 23 to 32 governorships. Today they hold 24. 5 Republican-held seats are favored to flip to Democrats and 1 Democratic-held seat to Republicans; 7 races are between 25% and 75%.
Democratic governorships across 20,000 simulations
The governor map
Click a stateRepublican, toss-up, DemocraticNo race this year
How the odds have changed
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
Every governor race
Closest first| State | Candidates | Poll avg. | Fundamentals | Forecast | Chance of winning | Cook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GeorgiaFlip Open · Rep. held | Keisha Lance Bottoms Rick Jackson | D+0.5 | D+4.2 | D+0.7 | 55% | Toss-up |
| Vermont Rep. incumbent running | Amanda Janoo Phil Scott | R+2.5 | D+4.0 | R+1.4 | 59% | Likely R |
| NevadaFlip Rep. incumbent running | Aaron Ford Joe Lombardo | D+2.3 | R+1.2 | D+1.7 | 61% | Toss-up |
| Texas Rep. incumbent running | Gina Hinojosa Greg Abbott | R+2.9 | R+5.6 | R+3.0 | 71% | Lean R |
| OhioFlip Open · Rep. held | Amy Acton Vivek Ramaswamy | D+3.3 | D+3.9 | D+3.4 | 73% | Lean D |
| Wisconsin Open · Dem. held | David Crowley Tom Tiffany | D+3.6 | D+5.7 | D+3.9 | 74% | Toss-up |
| KansasFlip Open · Dem. held | Cindy Holscher Ty Masterson | R+4.5 | R+0.8 | R+3.9 | 75% | Toss-up |
| Oregon Dem. incumbent running | Tina Kotek Christine Drazan | D+1.2 | D+16.1 | D+4.9 | 77% | Lean D |
| Florida Open · Rep. held | David Jolly Byron Donalds | R+5.2 | R+0.8 | R+4.9 | 82% | Lean R |
| Nebraska Rep. incumbent running | Lynne Walz Jim Pillen | R+4.4 | R+10.2 | R+5.6 | 82% | Lean R |
| Oklahoma Open · Rep. held | Cyndi Munson Mike Mazzei | none | R+10.0 | R+10.0 | 85% | Likely R |
| IowaFlip Open · Rep. held | Rob Sand Zach Lahn | D+7.6 | D+3.8 | D+7.3 | 91% | Lean D |
| Michigan Open · Dem. held | Jocelyn Benson John James | D+8.1 | D+7.3 | D+8.0 | 92% | Lean D |
| Arizona Dem. incumbent running | Katie Hobbs Andy Biggs | D+8.4 | D+11.6 | D+8.7 | 93% | Lean D |
| New Hampshire Rep. incumbent running | Cinde Warmington Kelly Ayotte | R+9.5 | R+4.1 | R+8.9 | 94% | Likely R |
| Wyoming Open · Rep. held | Kenneth Casner Eric Barlow | none | R+15.7 | R+15.7 | 95% | Solid R |
| Minnesota Open · Dem. held | Amy Klobuchar Lisa Demuth | D+9.6 | D+12.6 | D+10.1 | 95% | Solid D |
| Colorado Open · Dem. held | Phil Weiser Victor Marx | none | D+15.9 | D+15.9 | 95% | Solid D |
| Alabama Open · Rep. held | Doug Jones Tommy Tuberville | R+11.0 | R+10.7 | R+11.0 | 96% | Solid R |
| Arkansas Rep. incumbent running | Fredrick Love Sarah Huckabee Sanders | none | R+16.9 | R+16.9 | 96% | Solid R |
| AlaskaFlip Open · Rep. held | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Bernadette Wilson | D+11.2 | D+4.0 | D+10.6 | 97% | Lean D |
| South Carolina Open · Rep. held | Jermaine Johnson Alan Wilson | R+12.7 | R+7.3 | R+11.8 | 97% | Solid R |
| Idaho Rep. incumbent running | Terri Pickens Brad Little | none | R+18.4 | R+18.4 | 97% | Solid R |
| Maine Open · Dem. held | Hannah Pingree Robert B. Charles | D+11.2 | D+13.8 | D+11.4 | 97% | Solid D |
| Tennessee Open · Rep. held | Jerri Green Marsha Blackburn | R+14.3 | R+11.1 | R+13.6 | 98% | Solid R |
| South Dakota Open · Rep. held | Dan Ahlers Larry Rhoden | R+17.6 | R+11.6 | R+15.9 | 99% | Solid R |
| New Mexico Open · Dem. held | Deb Haaland Gregg Hull | D+22.0 | D+13.3 | D+18.5 | 99% | Solid D |
| Hawaii Dem. incumbent running | Josh Green Gary Cordery | none | D+24.5 | D+24.5 | 99% | Solid D |
| New York Dem. incumbent running | Kathy Hochul Bruce Blakeman | D+17.1 | D+20.8 | D+17.5 | >99% | Solid D |
| Illinois Dem. incumbent running | JB Pritzker Darren Bailey | D+19.6 | D+20.9 | D+20.0 | >99% | Solid D |
| Connecticut Dem. incumbent running | Ned Lamont Ryan Fazio | D+20.5 | D+21.8 | D+20.6 | >99% | Solid D |
| Pennsylvania Dem. incumbent running | Josh Shapiro Stacy Garrity | D+23.4 | D+18.3 | D+22.8 | >99% | Solid D |
| Massachusetts Dem. incumbent running | Maura Healey Mike Minogue | D+26.2 | D+25.0 | D+25.7 | >99% | Solid D |
| Rhode Island Open · Dem. held | Helena Foulkes Aaron Guckian | D+34.4 | D+17.2 | D+28.2 | >99% | Solid D |
| California Open · Dem. held | Xavier Becerra Steve Hilton | D+25.3 | D+18.8 | D+24.8 | >99% | Solid D |
| Maryland Dem. incumbent running | Wes Moore Dan Cox | D+32.2 | D+25.9 | D+30.6 | >99% | Solid D |