Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
2026 midterm polls

The 677 polls behind the forecast

The model reads 677 individual polls plus published averages for less-polled races. Each firm's house effect is estimated from how its polls compare with the average in every race it covers.

Pollster house effects

Firms with 2+ polls; dot size shows how many

Generic ballot averages

Ours vs. other aggregators

Presidential approval

Donald Trump's job approval at the end of each month, from Ballotpedia's polling average. The model doesn't use approval directly; it enters through the generic ballot.

Generic ballot polls

Adjusted average D+8.7
PollsterField endSamplePublishedAdjustedWeight
Reuters/IpsosOct 261,679 RVD+9.0D+9.31.49
CBS/YouGovOct 231,749 LVD+8.0D+8.61.58
ActiVoteOct 211,000 LVD+6.0D+6.60.52
Economist/YouGovOct 201,312 LVD+7.0D+7.01.26
NYT/SienaOct 193,494 LVD+11.0D+11.42.00
EchelonOct 191,010 LVD+5.0D+4.70.95
Reuters/IpsosOct 191,269 RVD+12.0D+13.20.53
CNBCOct 191,000 RVD+7.0D+8.00.94
Morning ConsultOct 1817,706 LVD+7.0D+8.71.60
CNN/SSRSOct 181,206 RVD+10.0D+10.51.38
RMGOct 142,000 RVD+8.0D+9.31.19
RasmussenOct 141,789 LVD+4.0D+5.20.98
ABC/WaPo/IpsosOct 132,032 LVD+8.0D+8.21.70
AP/NORCOct 12925 RVD+9.0D+10.41.21
NBCOct 1217,649 RVD+10.0D+10.21.95
Fox (Beacon/Shaw)Oct 121,202 RVD+9.0D+10.11.29
CygnalOct 101,500 LVD+9.0D+7.71.20
NewsNationOct 9974 LVD+7.0D+7.80.84
FTOct 62,275 LVD+8.0D+8.21.43
Economist/YouGovOct 51,173 LVD+11.0D+11.40.48
Pew Research CenterOct 43,917 RVD+8.0D+9.91.47
CygnalOct 21,500 LVD+9.0D+7.50.48
HarrisX/HarrisSep 28– LVD+2.0D+3.60.57
The Argument/VerasightSep 22– LVD+10.0D+9.70.57
YouGovSep 81,015 LVD+11.0D+11.61.14
Morning ConsultSep 62,203 RVD+4.0D+6.50.58
YouGovAug 241,377 RVD+6.0D+6.80.54
IpsosAug 24951 RVD+6.0D+8.80.92
Noble Predictive InsightsAug 162,533 RVD+5.0D+5.71.34
Morning ConsultJul 1224,000 RVD+3.0D+5.40.65
FocaldataJun 301,795 RVD+7.0D+7.91.14
YouGovJun 291,426 RVD+3.0D+3.30.54
Big Data PollJun 282,604 LVD+9.2D+9.61.05
Morning ConsultJun 22– RVD+4.0D+6.50.29
Verasight/VoteHubJun 221,896 RVD+7.0D+7.61.25
EchelonJun 221,003 LVD+6.0D+5.70.38
IpsosJun 22978 RVD+5.0D+7.40.37
YouGovJun 221,517 RVD+2.0D+2.20.56
QuantusJun 171,000 LVD+4.0D+7.30.73
Marquette University Law SchoolJun 15827 LVD+8.0D+8.10.72
YouGovJun 151,402 RVD+2.0D+2.20.53
IpsosJun 151,195 RVD+3.0D+4.80.41
Morning ConsultJun 1424,000 RVD+3.9D+6.40.65
EchelonJun 141,012 LVD+6.0D+5.80.38
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 131,023 LVD+9.0D+8.90.87
EmersonJun 81,200 LVD+10.8D+11.81.37
IpsosJun 83,578 RVD+4.0D+6.10.59
YouGovJun 81,437 RVD+4.0D+4.50.55
Hart Research AssociatesJun 72,400 RVD+5.0D+5.91.29
HarrisXJun 71,137 LVD+1.0D+2.50.91
Morning ConsultJun 724,849 RVD+4.0D+6.50.65
Research Co.Jun 61,001 RVD+5.0D+7.30.98
Noble Predictive InsightsJun 42,585 RVD+6.0D+6.90.54
RMGJun 42,000 RVD+4.0D+5.20.48
CygnalJun 31,500 LVD+5.0D+3.50.48
The Argument/VerasightJun 33,008 RVD+6.0D+6.40.54
The Winston GroupJun 21,000 RVD+7.0D+7.90.86
The Bullfinch GroupJun 21,200 RVD+7.0D+8.11.05
QuantusJun 21,050 LVD+5.0D+8.50.30
FocaldataJun 11,537 RVD+5.0D+6.00.43
YouGovJun 11,452 RVD+4.0D+4.40.54

Special elections since 2025

Democrats have run 12.5 points ahead of Harris's 2024 margin across 110 specials (The Downballot)
DateRaceResult2024 presidentSwing
2025-01IA SD-35D+4.0R+21.0D+25.0
2025-04-01FL-01 (US House)R+14.6R+38.0D+23.4
2025-04-01FL-06 (US House)R+14.0R+30.0D+16.0
2025-09-23AZ-07 (US House)D+39.5D+22.0D+17.5
2025-12-02TN-07 (US House)R+8.8R+22.0D+13.2
2026-04-07GA-14 (US House) runoffR+11.8R+40.0D+28.2