Senate / KentuckyKentucky Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (open seat)
Andy Barr is heavily favored to win Kentucky
Charles Booker1%Democrat
Andy Barr99%Republican
Forecast marginR+17.380%: R+26.0 to R+8.0
Tipping point0.1%chance it decides control
Cook ratingSolid ROct 20
2024 presidentR+30.6nation R+1.5
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsCharles Booker wins in 1% of simulations (about 1 in 93 for the underdog). Median margin R+17.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+20.4. Kentucky voted R+30.6 for president in 2024, 29.1 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7).
Polls R+11.7. 1 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 35% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group D internal | Aug 27 | 600 LV | R+9.0 | R+0.2 | R+11.6 | 0.27 |