Kathy Hochul is heavily favored to win New York
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsKathy Hochul wins in >99% of simulations (about 1 in 294 for the underdog). Median margin D+18.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+20.8. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) and 10 points for the incumbent with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+17.1. 12 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 89% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | Oct 19 | 1,167 LV | D+14.0 | R+0.2 | D+14.4 | 0.91 |
| Beacon Research | Oct 6 | 820 RV | D+22.0 | D+2.2 | D+23.9 | 0.82 |
| Emerson College | Oct 5 | 900 LV | D+12.7 | R+1.5 | D+14.8 | 0.80 |
| co/efficient R internal | Sep 25 | 1,046 LV | D+7.0 | R+4.6 | D+14.2 | 0.44 |
| Quinnipiac University | Sep 20 | 1,026 LV | D+19.0 | R+0.2 | D+19.2 | 0.34 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners D internal | Aug 21 | 505 LV | D+16.0 | D+2.2 | D+14.3 | 0.29 |
| Siena University | Aug 6 | 811 LV | D+10.0 | R+0.1 | D+11.1 | 0.77 |
| Red Oak Strategic R internal | Jul 12 | 2,000 RV | D+4.0 | R+2.7 | D+9.7 | 0.61 |
| co/efficient | Jul 2 | 1,085 LV | D+6.0 | R+4.6 | D+11.2 | 0.36 |
| Siena College | Jun 26 | 800 RV | D+25.0 | D+4.0 | D+30.4 | 0.98 |
| Siena University | Jun 23 | 1,120 RV | D+20.0 | R+0.1 | D+23.9 | 0.39 |
| Pollfinity | Jun 14 | 229 LV | D+10.0 | R+0.1 | D+10.9 | 0.17 |