Senate / OklahomaOklahoma Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (open seat)
Kevin Hern is heavily favored to win Oklahoma
N'Kiyla J. Thomas<1%Democrat
Kevin Hern>99%Republican
Forecast marginR+27.180%: R+36.0 to R+18.0
Tipping point0.0%chance it decides control
Cook ratingSolid ROct 20
2024 presidentR+34.3nation R+1.5
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsN'Kiyla J. Thomas wins in <1% of simulations (about 1 in 2857 for the underdog). Median margin R+27.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+24.1. Oklahoma voted R+34.3 for president in 2024, 32.8 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7).
Polls R+30.8. 1 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 46% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHS & Associates | Aug 6 | 500 RV | R+24.0 | 0.0 | R+30.8 | 0.66 |