Hannah Pingree is heavily favored to win Maine
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsHannah Pingree wins in 97% of simulations (about 1 in 37 for the underdog). Median margin D+11.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+13.8. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+11.2. 16 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 92% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist University | Oct 25 | 1,449 LV | Even | 0.0 | Even | 1.06 |
| Echelon Insights | Oct 23 | 413 LV | D+13.0 | R+1.1 | D+15.3 | 0.54 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Oct 20 | 1,514 LV | D+10.0 | D+0.4 | D+10.7 | 1.09 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government | Oct 5 | 800 LV | D+13.0 | D+1.2 | D+13.6 | 0.78 |
| Marist University | Oct 4 | 1,505 RV | D+12.0 | 0.0 | D+13.4 | 0.42 |
| co/efficient | Sep 30 | 1,240 LV | D+9.0 | R+4.6 | D+14.8 | 1.00 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22 | 619 LV | D+13.0 | R+1.7 | D+17.3 | 0.68 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | Sep 22 | 982 LV | D+13.0 | R+0.4 | D+14.2 | 0.85 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 1,312 LV | D+8.0 | R+1.9 | D+10.8 | 1.01 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | Sep 14 | 650 LV | D+11.0 | R+0.7 | D+13.0 | 0.67 |
| YouGov | Sep 8 | 1,334 LV | D+11.0 | D+0.7 | D+12.2 | 1.35 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Aug 10 | 1,000 RV | D+11.0 | D+0.4 | D+12.6 | 0.35 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 20 | 1,178 LV | D+14.0 | R+1.9 | D+18.1 | 0.39 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jun 27 | 1,003 RV | D+11.0 | D+0.4 | D+11.6 | 0.33 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 26 | 608 LV | D+15.0 | R+1.7 | D+17.0 | 0.24 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 26 | 608 LV | D+14.0 | R+1.7 | D+17.5 | 0.26 |