Senate / New HampshireNew Hampshire Senate 2026 · seat held by Democrats (open seat)
Chris Pappas is heavily favored to win New Hampshire
Chris Pappas91%Democrat
John E. Sununu9%Republican
Forecast marginD+7.680%: Even to D+15.0
Tipping point3.5%chance it decides control
Cook ratingLean DOct 20
2024 presidentD+2.8nation R+1.5
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsChris Pappas wins in 91% of simulations (about 1 in 11 for the underdog). Median margin D+8.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+13.0. New Hampshire voted D+2.8 for president in 2024, 4.3 points more Democratic than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7).
Polls D+6.9. 17 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 88% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Model vs. prediction market
KalshiThis model91%Democrat wins
Kalshi90%implied, Oct 27
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen | Oct 23 | 970 LV | D+6.0 | R+1.0 | D+7.2 | 0.70 |
| Saint Anselm | Oct 20 | 1,672 LV | D+7.0 | D+0.6 | D+6.7 | 1.11 |
| NPA | Oct 12 | 600 LV | D+5.0 | R+0.9 | D+6.1 | 0.51 |
| YouGov | Oct 5 | 1,520 LV | D+8.0 | D+0.7 | D+7.6 | 1.35 |
| Rasmussen | Oct 4 | 979 LV | D+5.0 | R+1.0 | D+6.2 | 0.28 |
| Saint Anselm | Sep 29 | 1,042 LV | D+7.0 | D+0.6 | D+6.6 | 0.34 |
| Trafalgar | Sep 27 | 1,082 LV | D+6.0 | R+1.5 | D+8.1 | 0.91 |
| NYT/Siena | Sep 22 | 613 LV | D+5.0 | D+0.1 | D+5.0 | 0.86 |
| UNH | Sep 21 | 1,418 LV | D+8.0 | R+2.3 | D+10.7 | 1.39 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 17 | 1,200 LV | D+8.0 | R+1.2 | D+10.0 | 0.89 |
| co/efficient | Sep 11 | 958 LV | Even | R+4.6 | D+4.6 | 0.82 |
| Rasmussen | Sep 10 | 1,000 LV | D+11.0 | R+1.0 | D+14.5 | 0.32 |
| Fabrizio/Impact R internal | Aug 30 | 600 LV | R+1.0 | R+0.5 | D+1.2 | 0.43 |
| UNH | Aug 24 | 1,878 LV | R+2.0 | R+2.3 | D+0.1 | 0.65 |
| Saint Anselm | Aug 18 | 1,411 LV | D+7.0 | D+0.6 | D+7.0 | 0.42 |
| Saint Anselm | Jun 25 | 1,614 RV | D+6.0 | D+0.6 | D+6.7 | 0.45 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 2,232 LV | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | D+5.1 | 1.26 |