Alan Wilson is heavily favored to win South Carolina
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsJermaine Johnson wins in 3% of simulations (about 1 in 33 for the underdog). Median margin R+12.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+7.3. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls R+12.7. 3 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 84% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | Oct 25 | 895 LV | R+10.0 | R+1.2 | R+9.3 | 0.79 |
| Trafalgar Group | Oct 18 | 1,095 LV | R+16.0 | R+1.2 | R+16.3 | 0.92 |
| Public Policy Polling D internal | Jul 17 | 577 LV | R+8.0 | R+0.9 | R+10.6 | 0.32 |