Senate / New JerseyNew Jersey Senate 2026 · seat held by Democrats (incumbent running)
Cory Booker is heavily favored to win New Jersey
Cory Booker99%Democrat
Justin Murphy1%Republican
Forecast marginD+17.380%: D+7.0 to D+28.0
Tipping point0.6%chance it decides control
Cook ratingSolid DOct 20
2024 presidentD+5.9nation R+1.5
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsCory Booker wins in 99% of simulations (about 1 in 68 for the underdog). Median margin D+17.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+17.3. New Jersey voted D+5.9 for president in 2024, 7.4 points more Democratic than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Cory Booker's incumbency is worth 1.2 points.
No public polls, so the forecast is fundamentals only, with wider uncertainty.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This race is modeled from a published polling average. | ||||||