Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
Senate / MichiganMichigan Senate 2026 · seat held by Democrats (open seat)

Abdul El-Sayed is slightly favored to win Michigan

Abdul El-Sayed74%Democrat
Mike Rogers26%Republican
Forecast marginD+3.580%: R+4.0 to D+10.0
Tipping point11.6%chance it decides control
Cook ratingToss-upOct 20
2024 presidentR+1.4nation R+1.5

Polls

Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as published

Dot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.

Range of outcomes

Democratic margin across simulations

Abdul El-Sayed wins in 74% of simulations (about 1 in 4 for the underdog). Median margin D+3.0.

Chance of winning over time

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

How the forecast is built

Fundamentals D+8.8. Michigan voted R+1.4 for president in 2024, 0.1 points more Democratic than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7).

Polls D+3.0. 38 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 91% of the weight.

What this race means for control

Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.

Fundraising

From candidate reports through 2026-09-30 (cycle totals)
Abdul El-Sayed$44.9Mraised this cycle
Mike Rogers$20.4Mraised this cycle

Through 2026-09-30 (cycle totals). Source

Model vs. prediction market

Kalshi
This model74%Democrat wins
Kalshi69%implied, Oct 27

Every poll in the model

PollsterField endSamplePublishedHouse effectAdjustedWeight
RedBoxOct 232,696 LVD+5.0R+0.4D+5.60.96
GlengariffOct 22600 LVD+6.0R+2.1D+8.10.80
InsiderAdvantageOct 221,200 LVD+1.0R+1.2D+2.30.86
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGovOct 19836 LVD+2.5D+1.5D+1.00.75
MaristOct 181,000 LVD+2.0D+2.2R+0.21.16
RasmussenOct 14798 LVD+2.0R+1.0D+3.10.64
InsiderAdvantageOct 101,200 LVD+2.0R+1.2D+3.30.34
Tyson GroupOct 8600 LVR+2.0R+1.0R+1.20.44
QuantusOct 6762 LVD+1.0R+3.0D+4.00.60
YouGovOct 43,949 LVD+1.0D+0.7D+0.31.77
MitchellOct 1682 LVD+5.0D+0.1D+5.40.59
Z to A D internalOct 1483 LVD+7.0D+0.6D+4.80.17
TrafalgarSep 301,085 LVD+2.0R+1.5D+3.60.89
Fox (Beacon/Shaw)Sep 281,028 LVD+1.0R+0.4D+1.41.17
MaristSep 271,235 RVD+7.0D+2.2D+5.60.54
GuidantSep 27800 LVD+4.0D+0.2D+3.90.57
Tyson Group R internalSep 27600 LVD+1.0R+1.0D+4.10.09
Big Data PollSep 24678 LVD+5.0D+0.2D+5.30.53
co/efficientSep 23843 LVEvenR+4.6D+4.60.77
NYT/SienaSep 22605 LVD+5.0D+0.1D+5.10.86
GBAO D internalSep 22800 LVD+4.0D+0.3D+2.00.29
SuffolkSep 20500 LVD+7.0D+0.6D+7.20.79
EmersonSep 141,000 LVD+2.5R+0.1D+2.71.19
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and GovernmentSep 14803 LVD+3.0D+1.2D+1.90.73
TrafalgarSep 91,079 LVD+1.5R+1.5D+3.10.35
EPIC-MRAAug 28600 LVD+4.0R+0.6D+4.90.61
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGovAug 20779 LVD+5.0D+1.5D+3.60.28
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchAug 17800 RVD+7.0D+1.6D+7.10.78
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesAug 11877 LVD+1.0R+0.3D+1.40.76
TIPP Insights R internalAug 101,528 RVD+3.0D+1.1D+4.90.55
GBAO D internalAug 10800 LVD+6.0D+0.3D+3.90.11
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchAug 101,006 RVR+4.0D+0.4R+3.70.82
EPIC-MRAJul 31600 LVR+3.0R+0.6R+2.70.25
MitchellJul 29672 LVEvenD+0.1R+0.10.23
GlengariffJul 24600 LVR+10.3R+2.1R+9.30.34
QuantusJun 30947 LVD+1.1R+3.0D+4.20.29
Zenith Research D internalJun 14602 LVD+3.0R+0.3D+1.60.32
Tulchin Research D internalJun 4500 LVD+5.0D+0.4D+3.20.28