Phil Scott is a slight favorite to win Vermont
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsAmanda Janoo wins in 41% of simulations (about 1 in 2 for the underdog). Median margin R+1.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+4.0. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) and 10 points for the incumbent with the eight published ratings.
Polls R+2.5. 4 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 83% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | Oct 25 | 1,752 LV | R+3.0 | R+0.1 | R+2.9 | 1.12 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 835 LV | D+6.0 | R+1.9 | D+8.3 | 0.76 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 20 | 954 LV | R+11.0 | R+1.9 | R+11.9 | 0.37 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 511 LV | R+15.0 | R+1.9 | R+18.3 | 0.27 |