Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
Senate / GeorgiaGeorgia Senate 2026 · seat held by Democrats (incumbent running)

Jon Ossoff is heavily favored to win Georgia

Jon Ossoff96%Democrat
Mike Collins4%Republican
Forecast marginD+10.180%: D+3.0 to D+17.0
Tipping point1.4%chance it decides control
Cook ratingLikely DOct 20
2024 presidentR+2.2nation R+1.5

Polls

Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as published

Dot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.

Range of outcomes

Democratic margin across simulations

Jon Ossoff wins in 96% of simulations (about 1 in 28 for the underdog). Median margin D+10.0.

Chance of winning over time

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

How the forecast is built

Fundamentals D+9.5. Georgia voted R+2.2 for president in 2024, 0.7 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Jon Ossoff's incumbency is worth 1.5 points.

Polls D+10.1. 16 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 90% of the weight.

What this race means for control

Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.

Fundraising

From candidate reports through 2026-09-30
Jon Ossoff$109.3Mraised this cycle · $26.3M on hand
Mike Collins–cash on hand

Through 2026-09-30. Source

Model vs. prediction market

Kalshi
This model96%Democrat wins
Kalshi95%implied, Oct 27

Every poll in the model

PollsterField endSamplePublishedHouse effectAdjustedWeight
EchelonOct 23508 LVD+15.0D+0.4D+14.90.61
ActiVoteOct 20400 LVD+8.0R+0.6D+8.60.27
QuantusOct 17755 LVD+8.0R+3.0D+11.00.58
University of Georgia School of Public and International AffairsOct 151,000 LVD+8.0R+0.3D+9.10.87
TrafalgarOct 91,101 LVD+8.0R+1.5D+9.70.88
Wedgewood PollsOct 3600 LVD+10.0R+0.3D+10.30.57
InsiderAdvantageSep 231,200 LVD+8.0R+1.2D+9.60.87
Big Data PollSep 23678 LVD+11.0D+0.2D+11.30.52
YouGovSep 183,301 LVD+10.0D+0.7D+9.61.79
QuantusSep 16645 LVD+4.0R+3.0D+7.20.22
RasmussenSep 141,019 LVD+9.0R+1.0D+10.40.73
TrafalgarSep 121,091 LVD+6.6R+1.5D+8.40.36
InsiderAdvantageAug 17800 LVD+7.0R+1.2D+8.50.27
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesJul 161,060 LVD+9.0R+0.3D+9.50.86
WickJun 301,175 LVD+3.8R+1.6D+5.80.94
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchJun 271,002 RVD+13.0D+0.4D+13.30.82