Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
Senate / TexasTexas Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (open seat)

James Talarico is slightly favored to win Texas

James Talarico65%Democrat
Ken Paxton35%Republican
Forecast marginD+2.080%: R+5.0 to D+9.0
Tipping point9.4%chance it decides control
Cook ratingToss-upOct 20
2024 presidentR+13.7nation R+1.5

Polls

Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as published

Dot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.

Range of outcomes

Democratic margin across simulations

James Talarico wins in 65% of simulations (about 1 in 3 for the underdog). Median margin D+2.0.

Chance of winning over time

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

How the forecast is built

Fundamentals R+3.5. Texas voted R+13.7 for president in 2024, 12.2 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7).

Polls D+2.4. 43 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 93% of the weight.

What this race means for control

Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.

Fundraising

From candidate reports through 2026-09-30
James Talarico$127.3Mraised this cycle · $14.6M on hand
Ken Paxton$19.4Mraised this cycle

Through 2026-09-30. Source

Model vs. prediction market

Kalshi
This model65%Democrat wins
Kalshi66%implied, Oct 27

Every poll in the model

PollsterField endSamplePublishedHouse effectAdjustedWeight
RasmussenOct 21965 LVEvenR+1.0D+1.00.72
ActiVoteOct 21400 LVD+2.0R+0.6D+2.60.27
Verasight/VoteHubOct 20509 LVD+3.0D+0.4D+2.70.57
EmersonOct 191,000 LVD+2.0R+0.1D+2.21.19
Fox (Beacon/Shaw)Oct 191,398 LVEvenR+0.4D+0.41.40
PollfinityOct 18278 LVD+5.0R+0.1D+5.40.19
TX Public Opinion Research D internalOct 18969 LVD+4.0R+0.1D+2.10.26
CBS/YouGovOct 161,492 LVD+2.0R+0.6D+2.61.44
U of HoustonOct 142,000 LVD+2.0R+0.1D+2.21.62
ActiVoteOct 14400 LVD+4.0R+0.6D+4.60.11
InsiderAdvantageOct 141,200 LVR+1.0R+1.2D+0.20.84
GS Strategy/New RiverOct 13934 LVD+5.0D+1.2D+4.00.98
MaristOct 111,000 LVD+2.0D+2.2R+0.11.21
QuantusOct 11854 LVEvenR+3.0D+3.00.65
ReconMR/SienaOct 8617 LVD+4.0D+1.1D+3.10.75
TrafalgarOct 81,086 LVD+3.0R+1.5D+4.70.89
UT/Texas Politics ProjectOct 5861 LVD+3.0D+0.1D+2.91.01
YouGovOct 53,625 LVD+6.0D+0.7D+5.51.79
NYT/SienaSep 30615 LVD+6.0D+0.1D+6.00.85
RasmussenSep 291,128 LVD+1.0R+1.0D+2.10.31
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGovSep 28850 LVEvenR+0.7D+0.70.77
GuidantSep 28800 LVD+2.4D+0.2D+2.40.58
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchSep 28881 LVD+2.0D+0.4D+1.60.74
Slingshot StrategiesSep 221,007 LVD+4.0D+0.4D+3.80.84
Texas Southern UniversitySep 191,800 LVD+1.0R+0.4D+1.51.14
EmersonSep 141,000 LVD+1.0R+0.1D+1.20.48
ReconMR/SienaSep 11614 LVD+6.0D+1.1D+5.20.30
InsiderAdvantageSep 91,200 LVD+1.5R+1.2D+2.80.35
YouGovSep 41,000 RVD+5.0D+0.7D+5.30.44
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact ResearchSep 1895 LVD+4.0D+0.1D+4.10.79
Slingshot StrategiesAug 241,000 LVD+6.0D+0.4D+6.10.34
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGovAug 131,218 RVD+3.00.0D+4.21.01
EmersonAug 101,000 LVR+1.0R+0.1R+0.90.48
YouGov D internalJul 311,001 RVD+3.0D+0.7D+1.10.22
Wedgewood PollsJul 31800 LVD+2.0R+0.3D+2.40.72
ReconMR/SienaJul 30619 LVD+4.0D+1.1D+3.20.30
Texas Southern UniversityJul 301,200 LVD+2.0R+0.4D+2.50.37
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchJul 271,006 RVD+3.0D+0.4D+3.30.32
Slingshot StrategiesJul 171,048 LVD+5.0D+0.4D+5.30.36
A2 InsightsJun 28618 LVD+2.30.0D+2.40.61
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 27656 LVEvenR+1.7D+1.70.63
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovJun 121,200 RVR+1.0R+1.1D+0.70.98
QuantusJun 4800 LVR+2.0R+3.0D+0.80.26