Ashley Moody is favored to win Florida
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsAngie Nixon wins in 11% of simulations (about 1 in 9 for the underdog). Median margin R+7.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+5.4. Florida voted R+13.1 for president in 2024, 11.6 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Ashley Moody's incumbency is worth 2.5 points.
Polls R+6.8. 21 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 91% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Model vs. prediction market
KalshiEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | Oct 27 | 400 LV | R+6.0 | R+0.6 | R+5.4 | 0.27 |
| Echelon | Oct 23 | 515 LV | R+8.0 | D+0.4 | R+8.6 | 0.61 |
| RedBox | Oct 23 | 4,832 LV | R+7.0 | R+0.4 | R+6.9 | 1.00 |
| co/efficient | Oct 20 | 1,014 LV | R+8.0 | R+4.6 | R+4.3 | 0.88 |
| University of North Florida | Oct 19 | 1,471 LV | R+4.0 | D+0.6 | R+4.7 | 1.03 |
| Univision/YouGov | Oct 15 | 825 RV | R+9.0 | R+0.5 | R+8.2 | 0.75 |
| ActiVote | Oct 15 | 400 LV | R+6.0 | R+0.6 | R+5.4 | 0.11 |
| MDW Communications | Oct 10 | 2,351 LV | R+6.0 | D+0.7 | R+7.2 | 1.30 |
| Stetson University | Oct 9 | 716 LV | R+11.0 | R+1.9 | R+9.6 | 0.68 |
| St. Pete Polls | Oct 7 | 836 LV | R+2.0 | D+3.1 | R+5.2 | 0.76 |
| YouGov | Oct 5 | 3,813 LV | R+5.0 | D+0.7 | R+5.9 | 1.79 |
| Targoz Market Research/Beacon Center | Oct 4 | 857 LV | R+10.0 | R+0.8 | R+9.5 | 0.76 |
| James Madison Institute | Oct 4 | 847 LV | R+10.0 | R+0.8 | R+9.5 | 0.76 |
| Mason-Dixon | Oct 1 | 625 LV | R+10.0 | R+1.9 | R+8.9 | 0.64 |
| Change Research D internal | Sep 27 | 1,063 LV | R+1.0 | D+1.6 | R+4.6 | 0.34 |
| Stetson University | Sep 21 | 830 LV | R+11.0 | R+1.9 | R+9.8 | 0.31 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 21 | 600 LV | R+7.0 | R+1.2 | R+6.3 | 0.57 |
| St. Pete Polls | Sep 17 | 913 LV | R+0.4 | D+3.1 | R+3.5 | 0.32 |
| Quantus | Sep 10 | 733 LV | R+7.0 | R+3.0 | R+4.3 | 0.59 |
| Change Research D internal | Sep 9 | 1,107 LV | Even | D+1.6 | R+3.6 | 0.14 |
| University of North Florida | Jul 17 | 848 LV | R+8.0 | D+0.6 | R+9.0 | 0.31 |