Ben Ray Luján is heavily favored to win New Mexico
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsBen Ray Luján wins in 99% of simulations (about 1 in 145 for the underdog). Median margin D+17.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+14.9. New Mexico voted D+6.0 for president in 2024, 7.5 points more Democratic than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Ben Ray Luján's incumbency is worth 1.4 points.
Polls D+17.6. 2 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 65% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | Sep 30 | 576 LV | D+18.0 | D+0.6 | D+18.8 | 0.61 |
| Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal | Aug 28 | 516 LV | D+15.0 | R+0.4 | D+16.4 | 0.56 |