Keisha Lance Bottoms is a slight favorite to win Georgia
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsKeisha Lance Bottoms wins in 55% of simulations (about 1 in 2 for the underdog). Median margin D+1.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+4.2. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+0.5. 14 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 93% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | Oct 23 | 508 LV | D+1.0 | R+1.1 | D+2.1 | 0.59 |
| ActiVote | Oct 20 | 400 LV | R+3.0 | R+0.6 | R+2.4 | 0.27 |
| Quantus Insights | Oct 17 | 755 LV | R+1.6 | R+0.7 | R+0.9 | 0.69 |
| GBAO Strategies | Oct 15 | 2,000 RV | R+1.0 | R+0.7 | D+0.3 | 1.21 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 13 | 800 LV | R+2.0 | R+1.2 | R+0.8 | 0.66 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Oct 3 | 600 LV | R+2.0 | R+0.3 | R+1.7 | 0.57 |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 23 | 678 LV | R+1.0 | D+0.2 | R+1.2 | 0.49 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 23 | 1,200 LV | R+2.0 | R+1.2 | R+0.9 | 0.34 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Aug 17 | 800 LV | R+0.1 | R+1.2 | D+1.1 | 0.27 |
| Quantus Insights | Aug 1 | 815 LV | D+1.5 | R+0.7 | D+2.3 | 0.30 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | Jul 16 | 1,060 LV | D+2.0 | R+0.4 | D+2.4 | 0.86 |
| Wick | Jun 30 | 1,175 LV | R+0.5 | R+1.6 | D+1.1 | 0.96 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jun 27 | 1,002 RV | D+5.0 | D+0.4 | D+5.3 | 0.81 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners D internal | Jun 2 | 510 LV | D+15.0 | D+2.2 | D+11.8 | 0.28 |