Jocelyn Benson is heavily favored to win Michigan
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsJocelyn Benson wins in 92% of simulations (about 1 in 13 for the underdog). Median margin D+8.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+7.3. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+8.1. 20 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 93% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | Oct 27 | 800 LV | D+5.0 | R+0.5 | D+5.6 | 0.72 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | Oct 22 | 600 LV | D+6.9 | R+0.5 | D+7.5 | 0.59 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | Oct 19 | 836 LV | D+12.4 | D+1.5 | D+11.2 | 0.75 |
| Marist University | Oct 18 | – LV | D+6.0 | 0.0 | D+6.1 | 0.59 |
| Z to A Research D internal | Oct 1 | 483 LV | D+10.0 | R+0.3 | D+9.1 | 0.26 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Sep 28 | 1,028 LV | D+9.0 | D+0.4 | D+8.6 | 0.82 |
| co/efficient | Sep 23 | 843 LV | D+3.0 | R+4.6 | D+7.7 | 0.77 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22 | 605 LV | D+5.0 | R+1.7 | D+7.0 | 0.61 |
| Cygnal/Beacon Research | Sep 21 | 600 LV | D+7.0 | 0.0 | D+8.2 | 0.65 |
| Suffolk University | Sep 20 | 500 LV | D+17.0 | D+2.4 | D+17.0 | 0.57 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government | Sep 14 | 803 LV | D+12.0 | D+1.2 | D+11.2 | 0.73 |
| Emerson College | Sep 14 | 1,000 LV | D+6.7 | R+1.5 | D+8.6 | 0.85 |
| EPIC-MRA | Aug 28 | 600 LV | D+4.0 | R+0.6 | D+5.1 | 0.63 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | Aug 20 | 779 LV | D+9.0 | D+1.5 | D+7.6 | 0.28 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | Aug 20 | 913 RV | D+10.0 | D+1.5 | D+10.2 | 0.33 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | Aug 11 | 877 LV | D+5.0 | R+0.4 | D+5.6 | 0.77 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Aug 10 | 1,006 RV | D+5.0 | D+0.4 | D+5.3 | 0.32 |
| EPIC-MRA | Jul 31 | 600 LV | D+9.0 | R+0.6 | D+10.9 | 0.26 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | Jul 29 | 672 LV | D+2.0 | R+1.3 | D+3.5 | 0.66 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | Jul 24 | 600 LV | D+5.0 | R+0.5 | D+6.4 | 0.26 |