Jack Reed is heavily favored to win Rhode Island
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsJack Reed wins in >99% of simulations (about 1 in 4000 for the underdog). Median margin D+30.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+31.2. Rhode Island voted D+13.8 for president in 2024, 15.3 points more Democratic than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Jack Reed's incumbency is worth 7.2 points.
Polls D+29.9. 5 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 78% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson | Oct 11 | 800 LV | D+34.0 | R+0.1 | D+39.4 | 1.22 |
| Embold Research | Oct 8 | 815 LV | D+23.0 | R+1.8 | D+27.4 | 0.80 |
| UNH | Sep 21 | 595 LV | D+20.0 | R+2.3 | D+24.8 | 0.88 |
| UNH | Aug 24 | 750 LV | D+20.0 | R+2.3 | D+25.9 | 0.42 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 664 LV | D+18.0 | R+1.9 | D+22.2 | 0.70 |