Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
2026 election scenarios

Call the races yourself

Pick winners and the page filters the 20,000 simulations down to the ones where those things happen. Because polling errors move together, calling one race shifts the odds everywhere else.

Kansas50% D
Iowa50% D
Nebraska47% I
Texas65% D
Alaska65% D
South Carolina33% D
Maine72% D
Ohio72% D
Michigan74% D
Minnesota85% D
Mississippi11% D
Florida11% D
Louisiana9% D
New Hampshire91% D
South Dakota6% I
Idaho5% I
Georgia96% D
North Carolina97% D
Arkansas3% D
House90% D

All simulations

68%D Senate
3%Ind. decide
30%R Senate
Democrats win House90%
Republicans keep House10%
0
R+80D+8
D+8.7
R+6D+5D+16

Both sliders re-run the full simulation. The polling miss moves every race after the forecast is made. The environment slider changes the generic ballot fed into the fundamentals and polls.