Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
Senate / North CarolinaNorth Carolina Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (open seat)

Roy Cooper is heavily favored to win North Carolina

Roy Cooper97%Democrat
Michael Whatley3%Republican
Forecast marginD+10.480%: D+3.0 to D+17.0
Tipping point0.9%chance it decides control
Cook ratingLikely DOct 20
2024 presidentR+3.2nation R+1.5

Polls

Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as published

Dot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.

Range of outcomes

Democratic margin across simulations

Roy Cooper wins in 97% of simulations (about 1 in 29 for the underdog). Median margin D+10.0.

Chance of winning over time

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

How the forecast is built

Fundamentals D+7.0. North Carolina voted R+3.2 for president in 2024, 1.7 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7).

Polls D+10.9. 30 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 89% of the weight.

What this race means for control

Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.

Fundraising

From candidate reports through 2026-09-30
Roy Cooper$12.5Mcash on hand
Michael Whatley–cash on hand

Through 2026-09-30. Source

Model vs. prediction market

Kalshi
This model97%Democrat wins
Kalshi97%implied, Oct 27

Every poll in the model

PollsterField endSamplePublishedHouse effectAdjustedWeight
QuantusOct 25702 LVD+9.0R+3.0D+12.00.56
Harper Polling R internalOct 20600 LVD+9.6D+1.5D+10.40.30
ActiVoteOct 20400 LVD+14.0R+0.6D+14.60.27
SurveyUSAOct 11643 LVD+14.0D+0.6D+13.80.63
TrafalgarOct 101,091 LVD+8.0R+1.5D+10.10.90
Elon/YouGovOct 8561 LVD+13.0D+2.2D+11.60.59
Change Research D internalOct 7829 LVD+10.0D+1.6D+7.20.30
East Carolina UniversityOct 3810 LVD+7.0R+1.2D+8.50.74
Big Data PollSep 29642 LVD+12.0D+0.2D+14.00.54
QuantusSep 22686 LVD+5.0R+3.0D+8.30.23
Harper Polling R internalSep 20608 LVD+10.0D+1.5D+11.50.13
Opinion DiagnosticsSep 20857 LVD+10.00.0D+10.60.77
Fabrizio/Impact D internalSep 201,806 LVD+11.0R+0.5D+9.80.69
YouGovSep 183,742 LVD+12.0D+0.7D+11.71.80
InsiderAdvantageSep 171,200 LVD+5.0R+1.2D+6.50.88
High Point/YouGovSep 16706 LVD+8.0R+1.5D+9.90.68
Catawba College/YouGovSep 15885 LVD+12.0D+0.9D+13.30.85
Harper Polling/Carolina JournalSep 15608 LVD+15.1D+1.7D+15.80.67
TrafalgarSep 101,084 LVD+5.9R+1.5D+7.80.36
East Carolina UniversitySep 3675 LVD+7.0R+1.2D+9.20.28
Elon/YouGovAug 31565 LVD+11.0D+2.2D+10.00.24
High Point/YouGovAug 12660 LVD+5.0R+1.5D+6.60.25
Harper Polling R internalAug 10600 LVD+13.0D+1.5D+14.30.12
Change Research D internalAug 6915 LVD+7.0D+1.6D+3.70.13
Change Research D internalAug 1967 LVD+9.0D+1.6D+6.00.13
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchJul 271,005 RVD+9.0D+0.4D+9.30.82
Elon/YouGovJul 23717 RVD+16.0D+2.2D+16.50.29
Public Policy PollingJul 11759 LVD+4.0R+0.9D+5.10.71
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 27601 LVD+7.0R+1.7D+9.00.60
YouGovJun 10905 LVD+14.0D+0.7D+15.90.44