Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
Senate / AlaskaAlaska Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (incumbent running)

Mary Peltola is slightly favored to win Alaska

Mary Peltola65%Democrat
Dan Sullivan35%Republican · incumbent
Forecast marginD+2.080%: R+5.0 to D+9.0
Tipping point12.1%chance it decides control
Cook ratingToss-upOct 20
2024 presidentR+13.1nation R+1.5

Polls

Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as published

Dot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.

Range of outcomes

Democratic margin across simulations

Mary Peltola wins in 65% of simulations (about 1 in 3 for the underdog). Median margin D+2.0.

Chance of winning over time

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

How the forecast is built

Fundamentals R+5.2. Alaska voted R+13.1 for president in 2024, 11.6 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7). Dan Sullivan's incumbency is worth 2.3 points.

Polls D+2.9. 15 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 89% of the weight.

What this race means for control

Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.

Fundraising

From candidate reports through 2026-09-30
Mary Peltola$17.0Mraised Jul–Sep
Dan Sullivan–cash on hand

Through 2026-09-30. Source

Model vs. prediction market

Kalshi
This model65%Democrat wins
Kalshi74%implied, Oct 27

Every poll in the model

PollsterField endSamplePublishedHouse effectAdjustedWeight
Data for ProgressOct 16675 LVD+3.0R+1.3D+4.40.69
PPPOct 15578 RVD+1.0D+0.2D+1.50.57
InsiderAdvantageOct 101,200 LVD+2.0R+1.2D+3.20.84
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 31,512 LVD+1.0R+0.7D+1.71.19
NYT/SienaOct 1504 LVD+7.0D+0.1D+7.20.76
QuantusSep 30758 LVEvenR+3.0D+3.00.57
TrafalgarSep 241,079 LVR+1.0R+1.5D+0.40.88
co/efficientSep 17799 LVR+2.0R+4.6D+2.50.72
RasmussenSep 141,188 LVEvenR+1.0D+1.00.87
Alaska Survey ResearchSep 121,352 LVD+4.0R+0.7D+4.70.44
Fabrizio/ImpactSep 11800 LVD+6.0R+0.5D+6.60.87
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 231,495 LVD+1.2R+0.7D+1.90.46
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 51,371 LVD+1.6R+0.7D+2.30.44
The New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 29593 LVR+2.0R+1.7R+0.40.60
Alaska Survey ResearchJun 71,393 LVD+5.2R+0.7D+6.10.46