Senate / LouisianaLouisiana Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (open seat)
Julia Letlow is heavily favored to win Louisiana
Jamie Davis9%Democrat
Julia Letlow91%Republican
Forecast marginR+9.480%: R+18.0 to Even
Tipping point1.2%chance it decides control
Cook ratingSolid ROct 20
2024 presidentR+22.0nation R+1.5
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsJamie Davis wins in 9% of simulations (about 1 in 11 for the underdog). Median margin R+9.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+11.8. Louisiana voted R+22.0 for president in 2024, 20.5 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7).
Polls R+5.2. 1 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 36% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research D internal | Sep 19 | 500 LV | R+4.0 | R+1.1 | R+5.1 | 0.26 |