David Crowley is slightly favored to win Wisconsin
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsDavid Crowley wins in 74% of simulations (about 1 in 4 for the underdog). Median margin D+4.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+5.7. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+3.6. 9 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 86% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research D internal | Oct 1 | 662 LV | D+5.0 | R+0.3 | D+3.6 | 0.32 |
| Marquette University Law School | Sep 23 | 692 LV | D+3.0 | R+0.1 | D+3.2 | 0.65 |
| Marquette University Law School | Aug 20 | 738 LV | D+5.0 | R+0.1 | D+5.3 | 0.28 |
| Marquette University Law School | Aug 20 | 891 RV | Even | R+0.1 | D+0.8 | 0.32 |
| TIPP Insights R internal | Aug 18 | 1,119 LV | D+4.0 | D+1.1 | D+5.2 | 0.46 |
| TIPP Insights R internal | Aug 18 | 1,434 RV | D+2.0 | D+1.1 | D+3.9 | 0.22 |
| Platform Communications | Aug 13 | 500 LV | D+4.0 | D+0.1 | D+4.1 | 0.53 |
| GBAO Strategies D internal | Aug 3 | 800 LV | D+3.0 | R+0.7 | D+1.9 | 0.37 |
| RMG Research | Jul 24 | 800 RV | D+3.0 | R+0.4 | D+4.4 | 0.75 |