Wes Moore is heavily favored to win Maryland
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsWes Moore wins in >99% of simulations (about 1 in 20000 for the underdog). Median margin D+31.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals D+25.9. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) and 10 points for the incumbent with the eight published ratings.
Polls D+32.2. 2 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 75% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Maryland Baltimore County Institute of Politics | Sep 27 | 776 LV | D+27.0 | D+0.7 | D+34.2 | 0.87 |
| Zenith Research D internal | Aug 3 | 800 LV | D+27.0 | R+0.3 | D+27.7 | 0.40 |