Senate / AlabamaAlabama Senate 2026 · seat held by Republicans (open seat)
Barry Moore is heavily favored to win Alabama
Everett Wess<1%Democrat
Barry Moore>99%Republican
Forecast marginR+20.580%: R+28.0 to R+13.0
Tipping point0.0%chance it decides control
Cook ratingSolid ROct 20
2024 presidentR+30.5nation R+1.5
Polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsEverett Wess wins in <1% of simulations (about 1 in 541 for the underdog). Median margin R+21.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+20.3. Alabama voted R+30.5 for president in 2024, 29.0 points more Republican than the nation. Add the national generic-ballot margin (D+8.7).
Polls R+20.6. 4 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 76% of the weight.
What this race means for control
Because polling errors are correlated, a win here usually comes with wins elsewhere.
Every poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal | Oct 17 | 500 LV | R+15.0 | D+1.7 | R+18.8 | 0.65 |
| The Alabama Poll | Oct 16 | 600 LV | R+21.0 | R+0.7 | R+21.6 | 0.63 |
| RMG Research | Sep 25 | 800 RV | R+21.0 | R+0.4 | R+22.3 | 0.79 |
| yes. every kid. | Jul 11 | 601 LV | R+15.0 | D+0.8 | R+19.2 | 0.69 |