Tommy Tuberville is heavily favored to win Alabama
Governor polls
Each dot is a poll after adjustment; grey ticks show where it was as publishedDot size shows the weight a poll gets. The line is the model's polling average, with its 80% band. The bar at right is the 80% range of the forecast on election day.
Range of outcomes
Democratic margin across simulationsDoug Jones wins in 4% of simulations (about 1 in 23 for the underdog). Median margin R+11.0.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
How the forecast is built
Fundamentals R+10.7. Governor races follow a state's partisanship only about half as closely as federal races, and incumbents carry a much bigger edge (both fit on the 2018 and 2022 results). The fundamentals average half the state's lean plus the national environment (D+8.7) with the eight published ratings.
Polls R+11.0. 3 polls, adjusted for house effects and likely-voter screens. Polls carry about 81% of the weight.
Polling errors here move with the same state's Senate race and with similar states.
What the forecasters say
Eight published ratingsEvery poll in the model
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Published | House effect | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Alabama Poll | Oct 16 | 600 LV | R+12.0 | R+0.7 | R+12.2 | 0.62 |
| RMG Research R internal | Sep 25 | 800 RV | R+13.0 | R+0.4 | R+11.3 | 0.39 |
| yes. every kid. | Jul 11 | 601 LV | R+8.0 | D+0.8 | R+9.4 | 0.62 |